A Comparative Study of System Dynamics and Intuitive Scenario forecasting about Military Conflict Scenarios between I. R. Iran and K. Saudi Arabia

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Ghanbari Amoghien Hosein; RASTGAR ABBASALI; FEIZ DAVOOD

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Journal: DEFENSIVE FUTURE STUDY Year:2019 | Volume:4 | Issue:13 Page(s): 111-141

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Information Journal Paper

Title

A Comparative Study of System Dynamics and Intuitive Scenario forecasting about Military Conflict Scenarios between I. R. Iran and K. Saudi Arabia

Author(s)

Ghanbari Amoghien Hosein | RASTGAR ABBASALI | FEIZ DAVOOD | Issue Writer Certificate

Keywords

system dynamicsQ1

FuturologyQ1

Scenario forecastingQ1

wargamingQ1

comparative studyQ1

Abstract

Recent developments in decades of defensive technologies, as well as defensive thinking, such as the spread of a quick war on the planet, the network of warfare, and the emergence of free and open access to the virtual media have transformed the face of the wars. This transformation has led to new features for wars. War is one of the most challenging arenas of decision making for mankind. The advancement of technology and the evolution of war have forced commanders to make important decisions in short periods. Due to the complex nature of war and difficaulty of the fast analysis of its environment for human mind, its nessecary for commanders to use computer modeling methods to making better decisions. One of these methods is system dynamics. Its important ability is calculating simultaneous effect of many variables on each other. In this Research the researcher tried to use system dynamics for executing the causal models of experts on the I. R. I and K. S. A Military conflict issue. Along with that, with a qualitative approach, the researcher reports the difficaulties of applying SD for strategic security and defensive issues and at the end, makes some suggestions for better modeling of these issues.

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APA: Copy

Ghanbari Amoghien, Hosein, RASTGAR, ABBASALI, & FEIZ, DAVOOD. (2019). A Comparative Study of System Dynamics and Intuitive Scenario forecasting about Military Conflict Scenarios between I. R. Iran and K. Saudi Arabia. DEFENSIVE FUTURE STUDY, 4(13 ), 111-141. SID. https://sid.ir/paper/369328/en

Vancouver: Copy

Ghanbari Amoghien Hosein, RASTGAR ABBASALI, FEIZ DAVOOD. A Comparative Study of System Dynamics and Intuitive Scenario forecasting about Military Conflict Scenarios between I. R. Iran and K. Saudi Arabia. DEFENSIVE FUTURE STUDY[Internet]. 2019;4(13 ):111-141. Available from: https://sid.ir/paper/369328/en

IEEE: Copy

Hosein Ghanbari Amoghien, ABBASALI RASTGAR, and DAVOOD FEIZ, “A Comparative Study of System Dynamics and Intuitive Scenario forecasting about Military Conflict Scenarios between I. R. Iran and K. Saudi Arabia,” DEFENSIVE FUTURE STUDY, vol. 4, no. 13 , pp. 111–141, 2019, [Online]. Available: https://sid.ir/paper/369328/en

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