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Information Journal Paper

Title

Predicting Export prices of the Iranian Pistachio Based on Commercial Cycles: Application of Structural Time Series Model

Pages

  559-571

Abstract

 The purpose of this study is to develop a prediction model for Iran's Pistachio export prices in the world market. The initial analysis of Pistachio price series over 987-2016 period confirmes the existence of cycles, seasonal effects and structural break in the series. Accordingly, developing a model having the potential to account for all these componenets of the price fluctuations is required. Given that, the Unobserved-components Model (UCM), is characterized with such potential was specified as a good choice for modelling Pistachio price series and predicting its future values. Results of performing different specification tests within the Unobserved-components Model confirmes the existence of random cycle components, the trend with deterministic constant level and seasonal random effects. Based on the specified model, a price of 8/9 dollar per kg is predicted for the Iranian Pistachio in 2022 year. in addition, result indicates that a large fluction in the Pistachio export price is not expected in the next 5 years.

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    APA: Copy

    SALAMI, HABIBOLLAH, & Mafi, Hassan. (2019). Predicting Export prices of the Iranian Pistachio Based on Commercial Cycles: Application of Structural Time Series Model. IRANIAN JOURNAL OF AGRICUTURAL ECONOMICS AND DEVELOPMENT RESEARCH, 49(4 ), 559-571. SID. https://sid.ir/paper/370326/en

    Vancouver: Copy

    SALAMI HABIBOLLAH, Mafi Hassan. Predicting Export prices of the Iranian Pistachio Based on Commercial Cycles: Application of Structural Time Series Model. IRANIAN JOURNAL OF AGRICUTURAL ECONOMICS AND DEVELOPMENT RESEARCH[Internet]. 2019;49(4 ):559-571. Available from: https://sid.ir/paper/370326/en

    IEEE: Copy

    HABIBOLLAH SALAMI, and Hassan Mafi, “Predicting Export prices of the Iranian Pistachio Based on Commercial Cycles: Application of Structural Time Series Model,” IRANIAN JOURNAL OF AGRICUTURAL ECONOMICS AND DEVELOPMENT RESEARCH, vol. 49, no. 4 , pp. 559–571, 2019, [Online]. Available: https://sid.ir/paper/370326/en

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