Providing Forest Fire Risk Map Using Multivariate Aduptive Regression Spline (Case Studey: Golestan Province)

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Shah Heydaripour Ali; PAHLAVANI PARHAM; BIGDELI BEHNAZ

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Journal: ENVIRONMENTAL HAZARDS MANAGEMENT Year:2018 | Volume:5 | Issue:3 Page(s): 265-277

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Information Journal Paper

Title

Providing Forest Fire Risk Map Using Multivariate Aduptive Regression Spline (Case Studey: Golestan Province)

Author(s)

Shah Heydaripour Ali | PAHLAVANI PARHAM | BIGDELI BEHNAZ | Issue Writer Certificate

Keywords

Forest FireQ2

Multiple Linear RegressionQ1

Multivariate Adaptive Regression SplineQ1

Risk MapQ1

Abstract

Forest areas are among the most important natural and ecological resources on the Earth and are considered as one of the main pillars of sustainable development in any country. Fires ruins almost 5500 hectares of Iran‘ s forests yearly. In this research, firstly, the fire points were identified using the fire data of Forest Organization in combination with MODIS sensor data between 2012 and 2017. Due to the fact that more than 75% of fires were happened in the hot season of the year (June, July, and August), the data of the three months was used for modeling. Then, the effective parameters in fire occurring were evaluated and the dependent parameters were removed. Accordingly, two methods, including Multiple Linear Regression and Multivariate Adaptive Regression Spline were studied to predict the fire risk. Some important parameters including the root-mean-square error (RMSE), R2, the correct estimation percentage of fire and non-fire points, and error distribution were used to evaluate. After modeling, it was found that the Multivariate Adaptive Regression Spline has better performance— where its RMSE of test data was 0. 1628, its R2 of test data was 0. 893, and its correct estimation percentage of test fire points and test non-fire points was near 94% and 88% respectively, as well as its error distribution was better than the other method...

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APA: Copy

Shah Heydaripour, Ali, PAHLAVANI, PARHAM, & BIGDELI, BEHNAZ. (2018). Providing Forest Fire Risk Map Using Multivariate Aduptive Regression Spline (Case Studey: Golestan Province). ENVIRONMENTAL HAZARDS MANAGEMENT, 5(3 ), 265-277. SID. https://sid.ir/paper/377713/en

Vancouver: Copy

Shah Heydaripour Ali, PAHLAVANI PARHAM, BIGDELI BEHNAZ. Providing Forest Fire Risk Map Using Multivariate Aduptive Regression Spline (Case Studey: Golestan Province). ENVIRONMENTAL HAZARDS MANAGEMENT[Internet]. 2018;5(3 ):265-277. Available from: https://sid.ir/paper/377713/en

IEEE: Copy

Ali Shah Heydaripour, PARHAM PAHLAVANI, and BEHNAZ BIGDELI, “Providing Forest Fire Risk Map Using Multivariate Aduptive Regression Spline (Case Studey: Golestan Province),” ENVIRONMENTAL HAZARDS MANAGEMENT, vol. 5, no. 3 , pp. 265–277, 2018, [Online]. Available: https://sid.ir/paper/377713/en

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