Future study of wheat in Iran

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FAKARI SARDEHAE BEHZAD; SHAHNOUSHI NASER; MOHAMMADI HOSSEIN

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Journal: AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS: IRANIAN JOURNAL OF AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS (ECONOMICS AND AGRICULTURE JOURNAL) Year:2020 | Volume:14 | Issue:1 Page(s): 27-49

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Title

Future study of wheat in Iran

Author(s)

FAKARI SARDEHAE BEHZAD | SHAHNOUSHI NASER | MOHAMMADI HOSSEIN | Issue Writer Certificate

Keywords

WheatQ1

ScenarioQ1

PESTELQ1

GBNQ1

Abstract

Introduction The growing population of the country, along with changes in global prices of agricultural products, has made food security one of the most important priorities of the country's agricultural sector. On the other hand, the study of the historical trend of energy and protein supply between 1989 and 2017, among basic food products, the share of Wheat in the per capita supply of energy and protein has been 40 and 44 percent, respectively. Since the selection and investment of technologies and industries, especially the use of emerging technologies, regardless of capabilities, advantages and disadvantages will cause inefficient use of capital, so determine the priority of inventory, science, technology and technology, taking into account storage and conditions. And looking at the future, it becomes necessary. Given the importance of Wheat in the country and the need to plan to provide part of the energy of the people's food basket through Wheat, the aim of this study is to study the future of Wheat in the country up to the horizon of 1420. For this purpose, first the theoretical foundations of future research were discussed and then the results of the study were examined by presenting the research method. Method According to the aim of the study, which is the future of Wheat research in the country, and according to the available information, the future framework of Veros 2012 was selected. The steps in the framework of foresight (Voros, 2012) are as follows: A-Input (environmental scanning): In the first stage, project data are examined using future research methods, environmental scanning and field research, library study, documents, books, articles and internal and external reports. B. Analysis: At this stage, several environmental components affecting the agricultural sector are analyzed, and among these, the main and opposite currents of influence, emerging issues and weak signs are summarized and determined. C-Interpretation: At this stage, the effects of environmental components on agriculture are directly and indirectly monitored. Using the prophecies and the outcome of the environmental components, the components are identified and finally these works are deepened based on different Scenarios and finally recounted in the form of several selected Scenarios. In order to implement each of the parts of this framework, executive methods are needed. In the input stage, PESTELD analysis was used for environmental scanning, and in the experimental analysis, interpretation and interpretation stage, the global business model (GBN) was used. Results and discussion Out of the total results, three propulsion systems, climate change, Wheat patrol technology and Wheat price were selected as the proponents for Scenario writing. It is worth noting that choosing these three propulsions does not mean abandoning other propulsions. The three drivers of climate change in three ways, the positive effects, the current trend and the negative effects of climate change, the pioneers of Wheat cultivation technology in three ways, the continuation of the current trend and the lack of attention to improving Wheat cultivation technology and the price of Wheat are two dimensions of Wheat price liberalization. The guaranteed price is selected. Three desirable Scenarios were selected: Scenario 1-Towards Food Security: In this Scenario, by 1420, the cultivated area has decreased by 26% compared to the current situation of Wheat cultivation, but in contrast to the combined yield of rainfed and irrigated Wheat, it has increased by about 30%, which has led to an increase. Is produced. This increase in production has been accompanied by a decrease in per capita consumption of Wheat to about 40 percent and Wheat waste to 44 percent. These cases have led to self-sufficiency in Wheat and its export. Improvements in the use of new cultivars, accurate agriculture and overall improvement of Wheat cultivation technology by 18, 18 and 50 percent, respectively, compared to the current situation have caused water consumption per hectare of Wheat cultivation to decrease by 27 percent. . Scenario 2-Never change: In this Scenario, the area under cultivation will be reduced by 11% compared to the current situation. has it. Using the growth of startups, Wheat subsidies, private sector organizations, the direct effects of climate change, crop rotation and overall improvement in Wheat production technology by 20, 13, 5, 10. 5 and 20 percent, respectively, compared to the current situation in the country, in some Self-sufficiency in production has been achieved for years, but water consumption per Wheat crop is still a problem, and there are concerns about Wheat waste. Scenario 3-Historical reversal: In this Scenario, due to social pressures and meeting the nutritional needs of Wheat cultivation, the yield did not decrease much and decreased by only 4% compared to the current situation, while Wheat yield increased by only 4% due to lack of attention. Per capita consumption of Wheat, which had a downward trend until 1396, has become almost an upward trend, and the price of Wheat is still determined by Dobat, which has made the cultivation pattern in the country ineffective. Suggestion In general, the purpose of developing Scenarios is not to provide an accurate prediction of the future, but rather to be a tool for better and more coherent thinking about the future. None of the study Scenarios are completely acceptable or undeniable. Overall, there is a very good picture of Wheat in the country in the Scenario of "food security prevention", there is a very good interaction between policymakers, research centers and farmers. The market and price play a decisive role in Wheat, and the government achieves its food security and security policy goals with targeted support. Energy and protein are provided according to the standard patterns of the Ministry of Health, and the problems and problems of Wheat in the country are solved by relying on the knowledge and technologies of the graduates of this field. The change Scenario is never a Scenario in which the country has not made significant changes in the way the country's agricultural sector is managed, and short-term policy decisions are still in place in the ruling sector, and Wheat is in line with the implemented policies.

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APA: Copy

FAKARI SARDEHAE, BEHZAD, SHAHNOUSHI, NASER, & MOHAMMADI, HOSSEIN. (2020). Future study of wheat in Iran. AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS: IRANIAN JOURNAL OF AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS (ECONOMICS AND AGRICULTURE JOURNAL), 14(1 ), 27-49. SID. https://sid.ir/paper/378991/en

Vancouver: Copy

FAKARI SARDEHAE BEHZAD, SHAHNOUSHI NASER, MOHAMMADI HOSSEIN. Future study of wheat in Iran. AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS: IRANIAN JOURNAL OF AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS (ECONOMICS AND AGRICULTURE JOURNAL)[Internet]. 2020;14(1 ):27-49. Available from: https://sid.ir/paper/378991/en

IEEE: Copy

BEHZAD FAKARI SARDEHAE, NASER SHAHNOUSHI, and HOSSEIN MOHAMMADI, “Future study of wheat in Iran,” AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS: IRANIAN JOURNAL OF AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS (ECONOMICS AND AGRICULTURE JOURNAL), vol. 14, no. 1 , pp. 27–49, 2020, [Online]. Available: https://sid.ir/paper/378991/en

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