Influence of teleconnection patterns on prediction of groundwater level fluctuations(Case Study: Garmsar Plain)

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AZIZI Z.; YAZDANI M.R.; KIANIAN M.K.

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Journal: IRAN-WATER RESOURCES RESEARCH Year:2020 | Volume:16 | Issue:2 Page(s): 178-191

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Information Journal Paper

Title

Influence of teleconnection patterns on prediction of groundwater level fluctuations(Case Study: Garmsar Plain)

Author(s)

AZIZI Z. | YAZDANI M.R. | KIANIAN M.K. | Issue Writer Certificate

Keywords

Teleconnection IndicesQ1

GroundwaterQ2

Artificial Neural NetworkQ2

Gamma TestQ2

Sensitivity AnalysisQ2

Abstract

External source of weather signals is also called teleconnections that can change weather conditions and thus affect Groundwater resources. The purpose of this study is to predict the effect of teleconnection patterns on Groundwater level fluctuations in Garmsar plain. Data of observation wells, climatic parameters of the study area, as well as 16 Teleconnection Indices from 1993 to 2016 were used for this study. Gamma Test was used to analyze inputs sensitivity and so determine the optimal combination of inputs. Modeling was performed with multiple regression as well as multilayer perceptron Artificial Neural Network (MLP) with two algorithms of Levenberg-Marquardt and Bayesian. Sensitivity Analysis results of model inputs with Gamma Test showed that among the climate parameters of the region, maximum temperature of Firoozkooh station and also Teleconnection Indices of SOI, EA, NP and WP had the most influence among the selected inputs. Also, the best model is the neural network method with Bayesian learning algorithm, that in the model testing stage in Sardareh well, the MSE and the R 2 were 0. 37 and 0. 9 respectively. In well 26, these values were 0. 06 and 0. 74, respectively. Also, results indicated that the use of teleconnections indices to predict Groundwater level fluctuations can have effective role in error rate reduction.

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APA: Copy

AZIZI, Z., YAZDANI, M.R., & KIANIAN, M.K.. (2020). Influence of teleconnection patterns on prediction of groundwater level fluctuations(Case Study: Garmsar Plain). IRAN-WATER RESOURCES RESEARCH, 16(2 ), 178-191. SID. https://sid.ir/paper/380632/en

Vancouver: Copy

AZIZI Z., YAZDANI M.R., KIANIAN M.K.. Influence of teleconnection patterns on prediction of groundwater level fluctuations(Case Study: Garmsar Plain). IRAN-WATER RESOURCES RESEARCH[Internet]. 2020;16(2 ):178-191. Available from: https://sid.ir/paper/380632/en

IEEE: Copy

Z. AZIZI, M.R. YAZDANI, and M.K. KIANIAN, “Influence of teleconnection patterns on prediction of groundwater level fluctuations(Case Study: Garmsar Plain),” IRAN-WATER RESOURCES RESEARCH, vol. 16, no. 2 , pp. 178–191, 2020, [Online]. Available: https://sid.ir/paper/380632/en

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