Non linear Relationship between Oil Revenue Dependency and Fiscal Instability in Selected Oil Exporter Countries: Threshold Panel Approach

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SAYADI MOHAMAD; Ahmadinejad Hossien; Rajabzadeh Rasoul

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Journal: JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS AND MODELING (JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS) Year:2018 | Volume:9 | Issue:2 Page(s): 1-28

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Title

Non linear Relationship between Oil Revenue Dependency and Fiscal Instability in Selected Oil Exporter Countries: Threshold Panel Approach

Author(s)

SAYADI MOHAMAD | | Ahmadinejad Hossien | Rajabzadeh Rasoul | Issue Writer Certificate

Keywords

Fiscal InstabilityQ1

Threshold PanelQ1

Oil Exporting CountriesQ1

Non-Oil GDPQ1

Panel DataQ2

Abstract

The main purpose of the study is to analyze the effective factors on Fiscal Instability of oil-exporting countries at different levels of dependency on oil revenues based on the Threshold Panel approach. Due to the ineffectiveness of the overall balance-of-budget indicator in oil countries as the basis for analyzing the government's fiscal policy, in this study, "The ratio of Non-Oil budget deficit to Non-Oil GDP" is used to measure the financial instability indicator in 2006-2015 period. The findings of the research, while confirming the existence of threshold effect (ratio of the oil revenues to total government revenues) in the model, show that with increasing government revenue due to cash seigniorage as well as rising inflation, financial instability increase. In addition, if the dependence on oil revenues is higher than the threshold level calculated (29%), the effect of dependency on oil revenue on the financial instability index is more than 3 times, when dependency on oil revenue will be lower than threshold level. The findings of this study confirm the necessity of planning and orientation in Oil Exporting Countries in order to reduce the structural dependency of the state budget on oil revenues.

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APA: Copy

SAYADI, MOHAMAD, Rajabzadeh, Rasoul, & Ahmadinejad, Hossien. (2018). Non linear Relationship between Oil Revenue Dependency and Fiscal Instability in Selected Oil Exporter Countries: Threshold Panel Approach. JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS AND MODELING (JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS), 9(2 ), 1-28. SID. https://sid.ir/paper/384877/en

Vancouver: Copy

SAYADI MOHAMAD, Rajabzadeh Rasoul, Ahmadinejad Hossien. Non linear Relationship between Oil Revenue Dependency and Fiscal Instability in Selected Oil Exporter Countries: Threshold Panel Approach. JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS AND MODELING (JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS)[Internet]. 2018;9(2 ):1-28. Available from: https://sid.ir/paper/384877/en

IEEE: Copy

MOHAMAD SAYADI, Rasoul Rajabzadeh, and Hossien Ahmadinejad, “Non linear Relationship between Oil Revenue Dependency and Fiscal Instability in Selected Oil Exporter Countries: Threshold Panel Approach,” JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS AND MODELING (JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS), vol. 9, no. 2 , pp. 1–28, 2018, [Online]. Available: https://sid.ir/paper/384877/en

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