Crime and Democracy: A Test of Modernization Theory Using the Dynamic Panel Threshold Regression Model (DPTR)

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Ghasemi Mojtaba; Rezagholi Houra

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Journal Paper

Paper Information

Journal: JOURNAL OF ECONOMIC MODELING Year:2020 | Volume:5 | Issue:3 (18) Page(s): 35-61

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Information Journal Paper

Title

Crime and Democracy: A Test of Modernization Theory Using the Dynamic Panel Threshold Regression Model (DPTR)

Author(s)

Ghasemi Mojtaba | Rezagholi Houra | Issue Writer Certificate

Keywords

Dynamic Panel ThresholdQ1

CrimeQ1

DemocracyQ2

Abstract

The relationship between Democracy and Crime has long been considered by social scientists. The relationship between these two variables has been studied based on the three theories of conflict, civilization and modernization. The civilization perspective predicts that the rate of violent Crime will decrease along with the effects of civilization from democratization. In contrast, the conflict perspective predicts that the rate of violent Crime going to increase along with the brutalizing effects of inequality in market economies. The modernization perspective, however, predicts that with the transition to Democracy, the rate of violent Crime will initially increase, but as democracies mature, this rate will eventually decrease. This study examined the effect of Democracy on violent Crimes and property Crimes during the period 2008-2017 for 88 countries using the Dynamic Panel Threshold Model (DPTR). The results of the estimates indicate that Democracy will have an incremental effect up to the threshold and then a significant decreasing effect on Crime. Thus, in the process of democratization, first, the Crime rate will increase and then, as Democracy matures, this rate will decrease, which is along with the predictions of the modernization perspective.

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APA: Copy

Ghasemi, Mojtaba, & Rezagholi, Houra. (2020). Crime and Democracy: A Test of Modernization Theory Using the Dynamic Panel Threshold Regression Model (DPTR). JOURNAL OF ECONOMIC MODELING, 5(3 (18) ), 35-61. SID. https://sid.ir/paper/390230/en

Vancouver: Copy

Ghasemi Mojtaba, Rezagholi Houra. Crime and Democracy: A Test of Modernization Theory Using the Dynamic Panel Threshold Regression Model (DPTR). JOURNAL OF ECONOMIC MODELING[Internet]. 2020;5(3 (18) ):35-61. Available from: https://sid.ir/paper/390230/en

IEEE: Copy

Mojtaba Ghasemi, and Houra Rezagholi, “Crime and Democracy: A Test of Modernization Theory Using the Dynamic Panel Threshold Regression Model (DPTR),” JOURNAL OF ECONOMIC MODELING, vol. 5, no. 3 (18) , pp. 35–61, 2020, [Online]. Available: https://sid.ir/paper/390230/en

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