Optimal Fiscal Rule for Oil Revenue Allocation: Stabilization Role of National Development Fund

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Bastani Alireza; Razmi Seyyed Mohammad Javad; NAJI ALI AKBAR; Baki Haskuee Morteza

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Journal: JOURNAL OF ENERGY PLANNING AND POLICY RESEARCH Year:2018 | Volume:4 | Issue:11 Page(s): 67-104

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Title

Optimal Fiscal Rule for Oil Revenue Allocation: Stabilization Role of National Development Fund

Author(s)

Bastani Alireza | Razmi Seyyed Mohammad Javad | NAJI ALI AKBAR | Baki Haskuee Morteza | Issue Writer Certificate

Keywords

Fiscal Rule

Permanent Oil Shocks

Bellman Equation

National Development Fund

Abstract

Oil exporting countries are continuously subject to oil price shocks. They have to deploy effective policy instruments and Fiscal Rules to manage the negative effects of these shocks. Sovereign wealth funds have been developed as stabilizing instruments to smooth the government expenditures and provide financial resources for optimal domestic investments. This paper develops and calibrates a dynamic general equilibrium model under uncertainty conditions to develop a Fiscal Rule for the optimal allocation of oil revenues between saving and current expenditures in a 65 year horizon. According to the results, a conservative fiscal policy in the booming periods is highly advised, since Permanent Oil Shocks are more frequent than transitory shocks. During oil booms, excess oil revenues should be allocated to the National Development Fund (NDF) or the Foreign Exchange Reserve Account. The results also show that optimal investment rate increases is higher in the long run since in a longer term horizon the social planner allocates more funds to NDF to compensate for the negative oil shock.

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APA: Copy

Bastani, Alireza, Razmi, Seyyed Mohammad Javad, NAJI, ALI AKBAR, & Baki Haskuee, Morteza. (2018). Optimal Fiscal Rule for Oil Revenue Allocation: Stabilization Role of National Development Fund. JOURNAL OF ENERGY PLANNING AND POLICY RESEARCH, 4(11 ), 67-104. SID. https://sid.ir/paper/397725/en

Vancouver: Copy

Bastani Alireza, Razmi Seyyed Mohammad Javad, NAJI ALI AKBAR, Baki Haskuee Morteza. Optimal Fiscal Rule for Oil Revenue Allocation: Stabilization Role of National Development Fund. JOURNAL OF ENERGY PLANNING AND POLICY RESEARCH[Internet]. 2018;4(11 ):67-104. Available from: https://sid.ir/paper/397725/en

IEEE: Copy

Alireza Bastani, Seyyed Mohammad Javad Razmi, ALI AKBAR NAJI, and Morteza Baki Haskuee, “Optimal Fiscal Rule for Oil Revenue Allocation: Stabilization Role of National Development Fund,” JOURNAL OF ENERGY PLANNING AND POLICY RESEARCH, vol. 4, no. 11 , pp. 67–104, 2018, [Online]. Available: https://sid.ir/paper/397725/en

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