FORECASTING IRANIAN NON-OIL EXPORTS: REGRESSION MODELS AND ARTIFICIAL NEURAL NETWORK

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MOGHADDASI R.; KHALIGH KHIAVI P.; KAVOOSI KELASHEMI M.

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Journal: Journal of Economic Modelling Year:2011 | Volume:5 | Issue:1 (13) Page(s): 0-0

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Title

FORECASTING IRANIAN NON-OIL EXPORTS: REGRESSION MODELS AND ARTIFICIAL NEURAL NETWORK

Author(s)

MOGHADDASI R. | KHALIGH KHIAVI P. | KAVOOSI KELASHEMI M. | Issue Writer Certificate

Keywords

ANNQ2

SARIMAQ2

NON-SEASONAL AND SEASONAL FREQUENCIESQ2

NON-OIL EXPORTSQ3

IRANQ2

Abstract

Expanding NON-OIL EXPORTS for diversifying exchange revenues and reducing oil income instability effects on IRAN’s economic growth has been one of the main strategies in foreign trade for recent years from the viewpoint of plANNers and policy makers. Present study applies ANN and SARIMA to forecast IRANian NON-OIL EXPORTS. For accomplishing this, monthly time series data of NON-OIL EXPORTS value during 2000-2009 are used. In order to predict this, the performances of two mentioned approaches are compared by using ME, RMSE, MAE, MPE and MAPE criteria. MAPE is calculated at 0.44 for ANN representing ANN forecasts are more precise than SARIMA ones.

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APA: Copy

MOGHADDASI, R., KHALIGH KHIAVI, P., & KAVOOSI KELASHEMI, M.. (2011). FORECASTING IRANIAN NON-OIL EXPORTS: REGRESSION MODELS AND ARTIFICIAL NEURAL NETWORK. ECONOMIC MODELLING, 5(1 (13)), 0-0. SID. https://sid.ir/paper/405011/en

Vancouver: Copy

MOGHADDASI R., KHALIGH KHIAVI P., KAVOOSI KELASHEMI M.. FORECASTING IRANIAN NON-OIL EXPORTS: REGRESSION MODELS AND ARTIFICIAL NEURAL NETWORK. ECONOMIC MODELLING[Internet]. 2011;5(1 (13)):0-0. Available from: https://sid.ir/paper/405011/en

IEEE: Copy

R. MOGHADDASI, P. KHALIGH KHIAVI, and M. KAVOOSI KELASHEMI, “FORECASTING IRANIAN NON-OIL EXPORTS: REGRESSION MODELS AND ARTIFICIAL NEURAL NETWORK,” ECONOMIC MODELLING, vol. 5, no. 1 (13), pp. 0–0, 2011, [Online]. Available: https://sid.ir/paper/405011/en

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