STATISTICAL ANALYSIS OF MASHHAD TEMPERATURE TREND IN RECENT CENTURY AND ITS RELATION TO ITS RELATION TO NAO

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GHAEMI H.; ASAKEREH H.

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Journal: GEOGRAPHICAL RESEARCH Year:2004 | Volume:18 | Issue:4(71) Page(s): 2219-2219

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Title

STATISTICAL ANALYSIS OF MASHHAD TEMPERATURE TREND IN RECENT CENTURY AND ITS RELATION TO ITS RELATION TO NAO

Author(s)

GHAEMI H. | ASAKEREH H. | Issue Writer Certificate

Keywords

TRENDQ4

PHASEQ4

NORTHERN OSCILLATIONQ2

MODEL ARIMAQ4

TRANSFER FUNCTIONQ4

Abstract

Due to the importance of temperature increase and it"s environmental and socio-economic effects on micro and macro planning, it has received much attention in scientific communities. Of these, is the effect on the behavior and pattern of pressure systems which is of global importance in changing NAO (North Atlantic Oscilliation) behavior in the last decades. Attempts have been made to investigate Mashhad temperature behavior and its relation to NAO by using statistical methods, ARIMA and TRANSFER FUNCTION models. There are three PHASEs in the temperature and NAO time series that have relatively synchronized in time occurrence. In the last century Mashhad temperature has experienced an increase by 0.004495 ± 0.003992 °C while NAO TREND has decreased by -0.00 1 ± -0.00496. The best ARIMA model fitted to Mashhad temperature is ARIMA (0, 1, 1). It is clear that difference at lag I(d= 1) in above model refers to a linear TREND in the temperature mean. It is found that there is a relation between temperature change and NAO by 0.49, weighted in TRANSFER FUNCTION model. At last a linear 20 year prediction is computed for both ARIMA and TRANSFER FUNCTION models. As shown in the main text there is an increasing TREND by 0.006 to 0.0068 °C per year.

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APA: Copy

GHAEMI, H., & ASAKEREH, H.. (2004). STATISTICAL ANALYSIS OF MASHHAD TEMPERATURE TREND IN RECENT CENTURY AND ITS RELATION TO ITS RELATION TO NAO. GEOGRAPHICAL RESEARCH, 18(4(71)), 2219-2219. SID. https://sid.ir/paper/406176/en

Vancouver: Copy

GHAEMI H., ASAKEREH H.. STATISTICAL ANALYSIS OF MASHHAD TEMPERATURE TREND IN RECENT CENTURY AND ITS RELATION TO ITS RELATION TO NAO. GEOGRAPHICAL RESEARCH[Internet]. 2004;18(4(71)):2219-2219. Available from: https://sid.ir/paper/406176/en

IEEE: Copy

H. GHAEMI, and H. ASAKEREH, “STATISTICAL ANALYSIS OF MASHHAD TEMPERATURE TREND IN RECENT CENTURY AND ITS RELATION TO ITS RELATION TO NAO,” GEOGRAPHICAL RESEARCH, vol. 18, no. 4(71), pp. 2219–2219, 2004, [Online]. Available: https://sid.ir/paper/406176/en

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