A Surveyon The effect of oil price volatility in Agricultural sector by Arimax and Neural network Methods during 1994-2014

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Ghaderzadeh Hamed; ghosairi darbandeh shima

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Paper Information

Journal: JOURNAL OF AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS RESEARCH Year:2021 | Volume:12 | Issue:4 Page(s): 189-204

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Title

A Surveyon The effect of oil price volatility in Agricultural sector by Arimax and Neural network Methods during 1994-2014

Author(s)

Ghaderzadeh Hamed | ghosairi darbandeh shima | Issue Writer Certificate

Keywords

Dutch diseaseQ2

Agricultural sectorQ2

ARIMAX modelQ1

Neural networkQ2

Abstract

Based on Dutch disease, it is predicted that due to increased oil incomes, its consequences may be reflected in all other economic sectors including traditional sector. The aim of this study is to examine the impact of oil price fluctuations on some variables in Agricultural sector. Data used for the study include production, exports, and pistachio and dates prices during years 1994-2014. data concerning Agricultural sector was collected from website of agricultural – jihad ministry and Iran’ s statistical centre as well as Central Bank site during years 1994-2014. As results of two ARIMAX and Neural network models showed that, the order of impact intensity of oil price fluctuations is the same on each variable in both models. But in Neural network, the direction of impact of oil price fluctuations on variables has taken place more precisely so that a reverse relationship between oil price and two variables of production and exports which have led to Dutch disease phenomenon is clearly shown. Therefore, the Neural network model is more accurate than the ARIMAX model.

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APA: Copy

Ghaderzadeh, Hamed, & ghosairi darbandeh, shima. (2021). A Surveyon The effect of oil price volatility in Agricultural sector by Arimax and Neural network Methods during 1994-2014. JOURNAL OF AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS RESEARCH, 12(4 ), 189-204. SID. https://sid.ir/paper/408499/en

Vancouver: Copy

Ghaderzadeh Hamed, ghosairi darbandeh shima. A Surveyon The effect of oil price volatility in Agricultural sector by Arimax and Neural network Methods during 1994-2014. JOURNAL OF AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS RESEARCH[Internet]. 2021;12(4 ):189-204. Available from: https://sid.ir/paper/408499/en

IEEE: Copy

Hamed Ghaderzadeh, and shima ghosairi darbandeh, “A Surveyon The effect of oil price volatility in Agricultural sector by Arimax and Neural network Methods during 1994-2014,” JOURNAL OF AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS RESEARCH, vol. 12, no. 4 , pp. 189–204, 2021, [Online]. Available: https://sid.ir/paper/408499/en

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