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Information Journal Paper

Title

Comparison of Different Approaches in Estimating Initial Reproduction Number of SARS-CoV-2 in the Islamic Republic of Iran

Pages

  0-0

Abstract

 Background: The basic reproduction number (R0) is an epidemic threshold parameter that indicates the magnitude of disease transmission and thus allows suggestions for the planning of control measures. Objectives: Our aim in this study was to compare different approaches for estimating R0 in the early stage of the SARS-CoV-2 outbreak and discern the best-fitting model. Methods: The dataset was derived from cumulative laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 cases from 26th February to 30th May 2020 in Iran. The methods of exponential growth (EG) rate, Maximum Likelihood (ML), time-dependent (TD) reproduction number, Attack Rate (AR), and sequential Bayesian (SB) model were used. Thegammadistribution (mean 4. 41 3. 17 days) was used for serial interval (SI) distribution. The best-fitting method was selected according to the lowest root mean square error (RMSE). Results: We obtained the following estimated R0 [95% confidence interval]: 1. 55 [1. 54; 1. 55], 1. 46 [1. 45; 1. 46], 1. 31 [1. 30; 1. 32], and 1. 40 [1. 39; 1. 41] using EG, ML, TD, and SB methods, respectively. Additionally, the EG and ML methods showed an overestimation of R0, and the SB method showed to be under-fitting in the estimation of R0. The AR method estimated R0 equal to one. The TD method had the lowest RMSE. Conclusions: The simulated and actual R0 of TD showed that this method had a good fit for actual data and the lowest RMSE. Therefore, the TD method is the most appropriate method with the best performance in estimating actual R0 values.

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    Cite

    APA: Copy

    Talkhi, Nasrin, ESMAEILZADEH, NAYEREH, SHAKERI, MOHAMMAD TAGHI, & Pasdar, Zahra. (2021). Comparison of Different Approaches in Estimating Initial Reproduction Number of SARS-CoV-2 in the Islamic Republic of Iran. JOURNAL OF ARCHIVES IN MILITARY MEDICINE, 9(2), 0-0. SID. https://sid.ir/paper/691930/en

    Vancouver: Copy

    Talkhi Nasrin, ESMAEILZADEH NAYEREH, SHAKERI MOHAMMAD TAGHI, Pasdar Zahra. Comparison of Different Approaches in Estimating Initial Reproduction Number of SARS-CoV-2 in the Islamic Republic of Iran. JOURNAL OF ARCHIVES IN MILITARY MEDICINE[Internet]. 2021;9(2):0-0. Available from: https://sid.ir/paper/691930/en

    IEEE: Copy

    Nasrin Talkhi, NAYEREH ESMAEILZADEH, MOHAMMAD TAGHI SHAKERI, and Zahra Pasdar, “Comparison of Different Approaches in Estimating Initial Reproduction Number of SARS-CoV-2 in the Islamic Republic of Iran,” JOURNAL OF ARCHIVES IN MILITARY MEDICINE, vol. 9, no. 2, pp. 0–0, 2021, [Online]. Available: https://sid.ir/paper/691930/en

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