PROJECTIONS OF CEMENT CONSUMPTION IN IRAN FOR THE PERIOD 1382-1390

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MEHRARA M.

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Journal: Iranian Journal of Trade Studies Year:2006 | Volume:10 | Issue:38 Page(s): 27-58

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Title

PROJECTIONS OF CEMENT CONSUMPTION IN IRAN FOR THE PERIOD 1382-1390

Author(s)

MEHRARA M. | Issue Writer Certificate

Keywords

DOMESTIC CEMENT CONSUMPTIONQ3

THE VAR SYSTEMQ3

CONDITIONAL AND UNCONDITIONAL FORECASTSQ3

IRANQ2

Abstract

This paper forecasts DOMESTIC CEMENT CONSUMPTION in IRAN for period 1382-1390.The best forecasting model is chosen with comparing the simulation performance of competing models in reduced and structural forms. The results indicate that the reduced forms specified as conditional and unconditional VAR systems outperform the structural ones in ex post forecasting period according to the forecast error statistics. THE VAR SYSTEM containing four variables: cement consumption, construction value added, relative cement price and real non-oil GDP, produces the best forecasts among the alternatives. While, the variables real GDP and relative cement price are assumed (weakly) exogenous in the conditional VAR, all the variables are modeled in the unconditional one. The conditional forecasts for cement consumption are made in three scenarios on exogenous variables: optimistic (GDP growth rate 8%), base (GDP growth rate 5%) and pessimistic (GDP growth rate 4%), assuming that the relative cement price is constant in all scenarios. The results show that the steady state growth rates of cement consumption are 10.3, 7.7 and 7.4 in optimistic, base and pessimistic scenarios, respectively. The unconditional forecasts (based on unconditional VAR) are close to conditional ones in base scenario.

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APA: Copy

MEHRARA, M.. (2006). PROJECTIONS OF CEMENT CONSUMPTION IN IRAN FOR THE PERIOD 1382-1390. IRANIAN JOURNAL OF TRADE STUDIES (IJTS), 10(38), 27-58. SID. https://sid.ir/paper/7359/en

Vancouver: Copy

MEHRARA M.. PROJECTIONS OF CEMENT CONSUMPTION IN IRAN FOR THE PERIOD 1382-1390. IRANIAN JOURNAL OF TRADE STUDIES (IJTS)[Internet]. 2006;10(38):27-58. Available from: https://sid.ir/paper/7359/en

IEEE: Copy

M. MEHRARA, “PROJECTIONS OF CEMENT CONSUMPTION IN IRAN FOR THE PERIOD 1382-1390,” IRANIAN JOURNAL OF TRADE STUDIES (IJTS), vol. 10, no. 38, pp. 27–58, 2006, [Online]. Available: https://sid.ir/paper/7359/en

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