INVESTIGATION OF DRY DAYS OCCURRENCE PROBABILITY IN GOLESTAN PROVINCE USING MARKOVE CHAIN MODEL

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ASAKEREH H.; MAZINI F.

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Journal: Geography and Development Year:2010 | Volume:8 | Issue:17 Page(s): 29-44

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Title

INVESTIGATION OF DRY DAYS OCCURRENCE PROBABILITY IN GOLESTAN PROVINCE USING MARKOVE CHAIN MODEL

Author(s)

ASAKEREH H. | MAZINI F. | Issue Writer Certificate

Keywords

DRY DAYQ2

MARKOVE CHAINQ1

OCCURRENCE PROBABILITYQ2

MAXIMUM LIKELIHOODQ3

GOLESTAN PROVINCEQ2

Abstract

In this research based on 51 synoptic, climatologic and rain gauge stations of GOLESTAN PROVINCE with at least 20 years length the dry spell with zero and 1 mm threshold have analyzed using Markov chain models.Spatial distribution of precipitation in Golestan is depends on longitude, latitude and specially elevation variables. So that the precipitation increases across north to south while the wet and DRY DAYs have changed with. DRY DAYs OCCURRENCE PROBABILITY in Golestan is 0.73 to 0.91 by the mean of 0.83 while it is 0.765 to 0.91 and 0.84 respectively for precipitation less than 1 mm. The range of OCCURRENCE PROBABILITY decreasd when the precipitation threshold increased with OCCURRENCE PROBABILITY growth.The spatial changes of DRY DAYs probability is not notable, so with based on the relationship between DRY DAY probability and precipitation rates concluded that increase in precipitation is caused decrease in the DRY DAY toward less precipitation regions. The results of this paper show more intense precipitation in south of province in compare with north parts in a few days. The dry spell is very shorter in the southern part of province in compare to the northern part in similar days.

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APA: Copy

ASAKEREH, H., & MAZINI, F.. (2010). INVESTIGATION OF DRY DAYS OCCURRENCE PROBABILITY IN GOLESTAN PROVINCE USING MARKOVE CHAIN MODEL. GEOGRAPHY AND DEVELOPMENT, 8(17), 29-44. SID. https://sid.ir/paper/77127/en

Vancouver: Copy

ASAKEREH H., MAZINI F.. INVESTIGATION OF DRY DAYS OCCURRENCE PROBABILITY IN GOLESTAN PROVINCE USING MARKOVE CHAIN MODEL. GEOGRAPHY AND DEVELOPMENT[Internet]. 2010;8(17):29-44. Available from: https://sid.ir/paper/77127/en

IEEE: Copy

H. ASAKEREH, and F. MAZINI, “INVESTIGATION OF DRY DAYS OCCURRENCE PROBABILITY IN GOLESTAN PROVINCE USING MARKOVE CHAIN MODEL,” GEOGRAPHY AND DEVELOPMENT, vol. 8, no. 17, pp. 29–44, 2010, [Online]. Available: https://sid.ir/paper/77127/en

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