INVESTIGATING THE PROBABILISTIC WARNING TIMES FOR THE EARTHQUAKE EARLY WARNING SYSTEM (EEWS) ON THE NORTH TABRIZ FAULT

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KARIMI VAHED H.; HEIDARI R.

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Journal: Journal of the Earth and Space Physics Year:2017 | Volume:43 | Issue:1 Page(s): 23-32

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Title

INVESTIGATING THE PROBABILISTIC WARNING TIMES FOR THE EARTHQUAKE EARLY WARNING SYSTEM (EEWS) ON THE NORTH TABRIZ FAULT

Author(s)

KARIMI VAHED H. | HEIDARI R. | Issue Writer Certificate

Keywords

EARTHQUAKE EARLY WARNING SYSTEMSQ1

ONSITE WARNING AND REGIONAL WARNINGQ1

PEAK GROUND MOTION OF THE EARTHQ1

PROBABILITY CUMULATIVE DISTRIBUTION FUNCTION (CDF)Q1

Abstract

The economic and social vulnerability of urban areas to seismic risk, because of the heavy tolls caused by earthquake, is very noticeable. Since it is not possible to accurately predict the earthquake occurrence with our current knowledge, then an Earthquake Early Warning System can significantly reduce and minimize the possible death toll. Using CDF (Probability Cumulative Distribution Function) this study aims at investigating the extent to which this Earthquake Early Warning System is implemented for the North Tabriz Fault so as to predict the time of On-Site warning time and Regional warning time in a probabilistic manner. To find out the areas and cities subject to risks of earthquakes, by earthquake simulation using a stochastic method, the peak ground motions of the earth (PGA) were calculated for the cities of northwest Iran. By the results of these calculations, high- priority areas were examined in this study.15 of the top priorities in terms of seismicity on the basis of strong ground motion (PGA) nature, cities such as Khoy, Varzaqan, Sarab, Tabriz, Qarah Zia od Din, Amand, Tekmeh Dash, Osku, Damirchi, Bostan abad, Sufian, Heris, Avin and Khvajeh were considered based on our study. The result of this study shows that the maximum Regional warning time in the cities of Khoy, Qarah Zia od Din, Avin, Bostan abad, Heris, Khvajeh, Sarab, Tekmeh Dash, Varzaqan, Damirchi, Tabriz were 19, 20, 21, 13, 17, 12, 19, 14, 15, 18, 10 seconds respectively. Due to the fact that for the stations with enough distance to the epicenter of the earthquake, the creation of Regional warning time only for distant cities is possible and implementable. The On-Site warning time for earthquakes close to the targets was also measured, as already was clear, it is not possible to establish considerable On-Site warning time for high-risk areas for North Tabriz Fault. It seems that this amount of time (Regional warning time) to set up EARTHQUAKE EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS in the city of Tabriz where it is the fourth largest city of Iran and has about 1.4 million inhabitants and one of the largest Iranian industrial cities, the Regional warning time is under 10 seconds which in terms of economy, cost, time and energy, according to the existing station arrangement, will not be economical and vital. It has to be mentioned that the warning times were calculated using the existing seismic network geometry in the region. Here we have only calculated the warning times to at least some of the affected population and cities (15 of the top priorities in terms of seismicity on the basis of strong ground motion) in damaging and destructive earthquakes.

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APA: Copy

KARIMI VAHED, H., & HEIDARI, R.. (2017). INVESTIGATING THE PROBABILISTIC WARNING TIMES FOR THE EARTHQUAKE EARLY WARNING SYSTEM (EEWS) ON THE NORTH TABRIZ FAULT. JOURNAL OF THE EARTH AND SPACE PHYSICS, 43(1 ), 23-32. SID. https://sid.ir/paper/80382/en

Vancouver: Copy

KARIMI VAHED H., HEIDARI R.. INVESTIGATING THE PROBABILISTIC WARNING TIMES FOR THE EARTHQUAKE EARLY WARNING SYSTEM (EEWS) ON THE NORTH TABRIZ FAULT. JOURNAL OF THE EARTH AND SPACE PHYSICS[Internet]. 2017;43(1 ):23-32. Available from: https://sid.ir/paper/80382/en

IEEE: Copy

H. KARIMI VAHED, and R. HEIDARI, “INVESTIGATING THE PROBABILISTIC WARNING TIMES FOR THE EARTHQUAKE EARLY WARNING SYSTEM (EEWS) ON THE NORTH TABRIZ FAULT,” JOURNAL OF THE EARTH AND SPACE PHYSICS, vol. 43, no. 1 , pp. 23–32, 2017, [Online]. Available: https://sid.ir/paper/80382/en

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