FORECASTING MODEL FOR BROILER PRICE IN IRAN: THE CASE OF TEHRAN MARKET

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GHAHRAMANZADEH M.; SALAMI H.A.

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Journal: IRANIAN JOURNAL OF AGRICULTURAL SCIENCES (JOURNAL OF AGRICULTURE) Year:2008 | Volume:39-2 | Issue:1 (AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS & DEVELOPMENT) Page(s): 1-17

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Title

FORECASTING MODEL FOR BROILER PRICE IN IRAN: THE CASE OF TEHRAN MARKET

Author(s)

GHAHRAMANZADEH M. | SALAMI H.A. | Issue Writer Certificate

Keywords

FORECASTING MODELQ3

SEASONAL PRICEQ3

PERIODIC AUTOREGRESSIVE (PAR)Q3

SEASONAL UNIT ROOT TESTQ3

SARIMAQ3

TEHRANQ3

Abstract

The objective of this study was to develop a FORECASTING MODEL which can be used to predict the monthly price of broiler in Iran. To this end, the authors resorted to time series techniques and utilized the periodic autoregressive (PAR), the regression-based time series, and the Box- Jenkins (SARIMA) models as the primary nominates for FORECASTING MODEL. Results revealed that broiler price does not follow a regular periodic behavior, thus the PAR (q) model could not be considered as an appropriate framework for modeling the broiler price behavior. Results of SEASONAL UNIT ROOT TEST indicated that the monthly prices of broiler follow a non-stationary stochastic seasonal trend. Accordingly, the regression-based model is an appropriate modeling framework. While SARIMA is an alternative modeling approach, the RMSE of forecasting error suggested the superiority of the regression-based model over the SARIMA model. Therefore, the estimated parameters of the regression-based model can be more safely employed to predict the monthly prices of broiler in Iran.

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APA: Copy

GHAHRAMANZADEH, M., & SALAMI, H.A.. (2008). FORECASTING MODEL FOR BROILER PRICE IN IRAN: THE CASE OF TEHRAN MARKET . IRANIAN JOURNAL OF AGRICULTURAL SCIENCES (JOURNAL OF AGRICULTURE), 39-2(1 (AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS & DEVELOPMENT)), 1-17. SID. https://sid.ir/paper/8472/en

Vancouver: Copy

GHAHRAMANZADEH M., SALAMI H.A.. FORECASTING MODEL FOR BROILER PRICE IN IRAN: THE CASE OF TEHRAN MARKET . IRANIAN JOURNAL OF AGRICULTURAL SCIENCES (JOURNAL OF AGRICULTURE)[Internet]. 2008;39-2(1 (AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS & DEVELOPMENT)):1-17. Available from: https://sid.ir/paper/8472/en

IEEE: Copy

M. GHAHRAMANZADEH, and H.A. SALAMI, “FORECASTING MODEL FOR BROILER PRICE IN IRAN: THE CASE OF TEHRAN MARKET ,” IRANIAN JOURNAL OF AGRICULTURAL SCIENCES (JOURNAL OF AGRICULTURE), vol. 39-2, no. 1 (AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS & DEVELOPMENT), pp. 1–17, 2008, [Online]. Available: https://sid.ir/paper/8472/en

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