THE EFFECT OF CHANGE IN POPULATION AGE STRUCTURE ON ECONOMIC GROWTH

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ARAB MAZAR A.; KESHVARISHAD A.

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Journal: JOURNAL OF SUSTAINABLE GROWTH AND DEVELOPMENT (THE ECONOMIC RESEARCH) Year:2005 | Volume:5 | Issue:15 Page(s): 27-50

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Title

THE EFFECT OF CHANGE IN POPULATION AGE STRUCTURE ON ECONOMIC GROWTH

Author(s)

ARAB MAZAR A. | KESHVARISHAD A. | Issue Writer Certificate

Keywords

AGE STRUCTUREQ3

POPULATIONQ2

ECONOMIC GROWTHQ2

ARDL METHODQ2

Abstract

Achievement of a higher rate of ECONOMIC GROWTH requires identification of potential economic elements and factors. Change in POPULATION AGE STRUCTURE can have important and determining influences on ECONOMIC GROWTH. In Iran, in spite of a POPULATION growth rate of 3.9% in the period of 1976-1986, a baby boom generation has come into being, now at working age. As a result, this research has tried to survey the influence of this change in AGE STRUCTURE on ECONOMIC GROWTH.Since GDP in Iran, especially during the years after the revolution, has not reached the full employment level, in order to comply with theoretical fundamentals, the authors have estimated the model in actual and potential forms.The results of estimated models, using Auto Regressive Distributed Lag Method (ARDL) for the period of 1959 - 2002 indicates that in the long-run one percent increase in the ratio of 15-64years old POPULATION to total POPULATION results in a rise of 1.27 percent and one percent increase in the ratio of employed labor force to the 15-64 year old POPULATION, results in 1.89 percent increase in actual per capita GDP. The effect of POPULATION AGE STRUCTURE on per capita GDP growth is the sum of these two changes.Our results also indicates that in the long-run, one percent increase in the ratio of 15-64 year old POPULATION to total POPULATION results in a rise of 0.87 percent and one percent increase in the ratio of ru;tive labor force to 15-64 year old POPULATION, leads to a 1.72 percent increase in the potential per capita GDP.According to the POPULATION forecasts, which indicate that the change in the AGE STRUCTURE of POPULATION will be to the benefit of 15-64 year-olds, the authors calculated the minimum required growth rate of employed and active labor force in subsequent years needed for preventing the negative outcomes of POPULATION AGE STRUCTURE change on actual per capita GDP growth as well as the growth on potential per capita GDP.

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APA: Copy

ARAB MAZAR, A., & KESHVARISHAD, A.. (2005). THE EFFECT OF CHANGE IN POPULATION AGE STRUCTURE ON ECONOMIC GROWTH. JOURNAL OF SUSTAINABLE GROWTH AND DEVELOPMENT (THE ECONOMIC RESEARCH), 5(15), 27-50. SID. https://sid.ir/paper/86561/en

Vancouver: Copy

ARAB MAZAR A., KESHVARISHAD A.. THE EFFECT OF CHANGE IN POPULATION AGE STRUCTURE ON ECONOMIC GROWTH. JOURNAL OF SUSTAINABLE GROWTH AND DEVELOPMENT (THE ECONOMIC RESEARCH)[Internet]. 2005;5(15):27-50. Available from: https://sid.ir/paper/86561/en

IEEE: Copy

A. ARAB MAZAR, and A. KESHVARISHAD, “THE EFFECT OF CHANGE IN POPULATION AGE STRUCTURE ON ECONOMIC GROWTH,” JOURNAL OF SUSTAINABLE GROWTH AND DEVELOPMENT (THE ECONOMIC RESEARCH), vol. 5, no. 15, pp. 27–50, 2005, [Online]. Available: https://sid.ir/paper/86561/en

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