PROBABILITY TREE BASED SCENARIO PLANNING

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Bromand ahmad; Abbasi ali asghar; BAHRAMI MOHSEN

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Seminar Paper

Paper Information

Seminar: NATIONAL CONFERENCE ON FUTURES STUDIES
Year:2015 | Issue:3

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Title

PROBABILITY TREE BASED SCENARIO PLANNING

Author(s)

Bromand ahmad | Abbasi ali asghar | BAHRAMI MOHSEN

Keywords

PROBABILITY TREE

SCENARIO TREE

SCENARIO PLANNING

FUTURES STUDIES

Abstract

ONE OF THE FUTURES STUDIES’ METHODS FOR DEVELOPING SCENARIOS FOR THE FUTURE IS PROBABILITY TREE (SCENARIO TREE) WHICH IS A SUBGROUP OF EVENT SEQUENCES. THE LOGIC OF EVEN SEQUENCES IN RELATION TO SCENARIOS IS THAT WE NEED EVENTS HAPPENING IN A SEQUENCE TO SHAPE THE FUTURE JUST LIKE HOW IT WORKS FOR THE PAST. IN ORDER TO REACH THE VISIONS AND FORMATIONS IN THE FUTURE, WE CREATE A TREE WITH LEAVES AND BRANCHES BASED ON THE THE EVENT PATHWAY, EACH PATHWAY FROM THE STARTING POINT TO THE LAST SUBBRANCH DEFINE A SCENARIO. THIS CONCEPT IS MOSTLY USED IN AREAS OF MANAGEMENT, RISK ASSESSMENT AND STRATEGIC MANAGEMENT AND ITS IMPLICATION IN FORESIGHT IS A RATHER NEW CONCEPT WITH ITS OWN PROS AND CONS. THE MOST PROMINENT FEATURE OF THIS METHOD IS THAT IT PRESENTS A GENERAL IMAGE WITH OCCURNECE DEGREES OF PROBABILITY IN A GENERAL SCHEME TO LEADERS AND EXPERTS. IN THIS PAPER WE ENDEAVORED TO ADDRESS THE BASIC CONCEPTS OF THE METHOD AND HOW A PROBABILITY TREE CAN HELP US IN A QUANTITATIVE AND QUALITATIVE WAY TO SHAPE THE SCENARIOS FOR THE FUTURE.

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APA: Copy

Bromand, ahmad, Abbasi, ali asghar, & BAHRAMI, MOHSEN. (2015). PROBABILITY TREE BASED SCENARIO PLANNING. NATIONAL CONFERENCE ON FUTURES STUDIES. SID. https://sid.ir/paper/907574/en

Vancouver: Copy

Bromand ahmad, Abbasi ali asghar, BAHRAMI MOHSEN. PROBABILITY TREE BASED SCENARIO PLANNING. 2015. Available from: https://sid.ir/paper/907574/en

IEEE: Copy

ahmad Bromand, ali asghar Abbasi, and MOHSEN BAHRAMI, “PROBABILITY TREE BASED SCENARIO PLANNING,” presented at the NATIONAL CONFERENCE ON FUTURES STUDIES. 2015, [Online]. Available: https://sid.ir/paper/907574/en

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