THE PREDICTION OF EXTREME TEMPERATURES OF ESFAHAN USING TIME SERIES METHOD

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KHOURSHIDDOUST A.M.; SANIEI R.; GHAVIDEL RAHIMI Y.

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Journal: GEOGRAPHIC SPACE Year:2009 | Volume:9 | Issue:26 Page(s): 31-48

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Information Journal Paper

Title

THE PREDICTION OF EXTREME TEMPERATURES OF ESFAHAN USING TIME SERIES METHOD

Author(s)

KHOURSHIDDOUST A.M. | SANIEI R. | GHAVIDEL RAHIMI Y. | Issue Writer Certificate

Keywords

EXTREME VALUESQ3

TEMPERATURE PREDICTIONQ2

TIME SERIESQ2

HALT - WINTERS MODELQ3

ESFAHANQ2

Abstract

There is greater application of adapting more accurate statistical methods for the study of changes and the prediction of elements such as temperature. One of these methods is the application of Halt - Winters method. According to the aims of prediction in which the estimation of extreme temperatures of ESFAHAN have been applicable for the next 10 years of 2006-2015, we examined different TIME SERIES prediction methods on the basis of the number of exiting data records of each series including 55 rules (the time range of date included the years 1951 up to 2005). Among the mentioned methods only Halt – winters model had the ability of predicting negative values among minimum annual absolute temperatures recoded for ESFAHAN. After testing of the models and the consideration of evaluation indexes, the accuracy of model was proved and that Halt-Winters model gave better results compared to other models. This is the reason why we used this model for the prediction of next 1- years minimum and maximum temperatures of Esfaha.

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APA: Copy

KHOURSHIDDOUST, A.M., SANIEI, R., & GHAVIDEL RAHIMI, Y.. (2009). THE PREDICTION OF EXTREME TEMPERATURES OF ESFAHAN USING TIME SERIES METHOD. GEOGRAPHIC SPACE, 9(26), 31-48. SID. https://sid.ir/paper/91365/en

Vancouver: Copy

KHOURSHIDDOUST A.M., SANIEI R., GHAVIDEL RAHIMI Y.. THE PREDICTION OF EXTREME TEMPERATURES OF ESFAHAN USING TIME SERIES METHOD. GEOGRAPHIC SPACE[Internet]. 2009;9(26):31-48. Available from: https://sid.ir/paper/91365/en

IEEE: Copy

A.M. KHOURSHIDDOUST, R. SANIEI, and Y. GHAVIDEL RAHIMI, “THE PREDICTION OF EXTREME TEMPERATURES OF ESFAHAN USING TIME SERIES METHOD,” GEOGRAPHIC SPACE, vol. 9, no. 26, pp. 31–48, 2009, [Online]. Available: https://sid.ir/paper/91365/en

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