Simulation of Temperature and Precipitation Changes in the Urmia Lake Basin Through SDSM Downscaling Model

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GOODARZI MASOOD; SALAHI BORUMAND; Hoseini seyed asaad

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Journal: GEOGRAPHIC SPACE Year:2019 | Volume:18 | Issue:64 Page(s): 41-60

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Information Journal Paper

Title

Simulation of Temperature and Precipitation Changes in the Urmia Lake Basin Through SDSM Downscaling Model

Author(s)

GOODARZI MASOOD | SALAHI BORUMAND | Hoseini seyed asaad | Issue Writer Certificate

Keywords

Climate ChangeQ1

DownscalingQ2

PrecipitationQ1

SimulationQ2

TemperatureQ2

UrmiaQ2

Abstract

Temperature and Precipitation are among the most important elements playing major roles in the study of Climate Change. These parameters have particular importance on water resources and natural ecosystems and also environmental, economic and social impacts. So in this research, we are about to simulate changes of Temperature and Precipitation in the Urmia Lake Basin where is facing environmental crisis and risk of drying is discussed for 2011-2030 period. It was done by SDSM Downscaling model. Meteorological stations evaluated are including four stations Saghez, Tabriz, Khoy and Urmia where have had full datum in the base period (1990-1961). In the study, first of all, the efficiency of SDSM model was evaluated using observed data and station renovated data of National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP). Indices such as MSE, RMSE, MAE and the coefficient of determination and correlation were used. After ensuring the accuracy of the Simulation model, climate parameters (rainfall, minimum and maximum Temperature) was simulated using general circulation HadCM3 model under two scenarios A2 and B2 within 2030 for the study area. The results showed that the model has relevant ability to simulate Temperature and rainfall. Based on the results of HadCM3 Temperature and Precipitation would be increased during 2020s (2011-2030), comparing to the base period. In fact, minimum and maximum Temperatures would be increased 29. 7 mm, 0. 3 and 1. 4 degrees respectively.

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APA: Copy

GOODARZI, MASOOD, SALAHI, BORUMAND, & Hoseini, seyed asaad. (2019). Simulation of Temperature and Precipitation Changes in the Urmia Lake Basin Through SDSM Downscaling Model. GEOGRAPHIC SPACE, 18(64 ), 41-60. SID. https://sid.ir/paper/91449/en

Vancouver: Copy

GOODARZI MASOOD, SALAHI BORUMAND, Hoseini seyed asaad. Simulation of Temperature and Precipitation Changes in the Urmia Lake Basin Through SDSM Downscaling Model. GEOGRAPHIC SPACE[Internet]. 2019;18(64 ):41-60. Available from: https://sid.ir/paper/91449/en

IEEE: Copy

MASOOD GOODARZI, BORUMAND SALAHI, and seyed asaad Hoseini, “Simulation of Temperature and Precipitation Changes in the Urmia Lake Basin Through SDSM Downscaling Model,” GEOGRAPHIC SPACE, vol. 18, no. 64 , pp. 41–60, 2019, [Online]. Available: https://sid.ir/paper/91449/en

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