ANALYSIS OF WEEKLY RAINFALL IN HAMEDAN PROVINCE TO ASSESS PROBABLE FREQUENCY OF DRY AND WET WEEKS

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MIRMOUSAVI SEYYED HOSSEIN; ZOHREHVANDI HASSAN

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Journal: GEOGRAPHIC SPACE Year:2013 | Volume:13 | Issue:42 Page(s): 149-167

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Information Journal Paper

Title

ANALYSIS OF WEEKLY RAINFALL IN HAMEDAN PROVINCE TO ASSESS PROBABLE FREQUENCY OF DRY AND WET WEEKS

Author(s)

MIRMOUSAVI SEYYED HOSSEIN | ZOHREHVANDI HASSAN | Issue Writer Certificate

Keywords

DRY SPELL LENGTHS DAYSQ2

MARKOV CHAINQ1

PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATIONQ2

HAMEDAN PROVINCEQ2

Abstract

One of the most important factors in the proper management of water resources is understanding the probability distribution of rainfall and dry and wet spell lengths days. Such cognitive areas can be suitable for the planners to deal with the devastating effects of drought and intense rainfall fluctuations. In this study, in order to do probability analysis of precipitation, daily rainfall data from 7 meteorological stations in HAMEDAN PROVINCE have been used. The method used in this study was the first order MARKOV CHAIN model. Daily rainfall statistics based on matrix mode change count and the lack of raingdays were sorted, then the probability of switching matrix based on X2 test methods against the trend was calculated by the Spearman method. Using the power of repeated these matrices, probability and reliable return period day of each of the two modes of precipitation and drought were estimated and periods returned to mainland were three, four, five, six and seven days during the year and weekly (for 52 weeks Years) which were calculated. Results show that the highest probability consecutive dry days are 3 and the lowest probability, consecutive dry days are 7. Likely return period of three consecutive dry days during the summer and autumn are about 100 percent. The probability was less than 80 percent, from 24 to 38 weeks which include the months of July and August. In summer there are 7 likely consecutive dry days that have also reached about 100 percent. The results also show that the probability distribution of weeks with rainfall in most of the stations were 21 and 42 to 52 weeks in a year and there is more chance of precipitation and 22 to 41 weeks in a minimum amount of rainfall. The minimum probability of 7 consecutive dry days in spring and minimum during weeks 11 and 12 with probability 45 percent are revealed.

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APA: Copy

MIRMOUSAVI, SEYYED HOSSEIN, & ZOHREHVANDI, HASSAN. (2013). ANALYSIS OF WEEKLY RAINFALL IN HAMEDAN PROVINCE TO ASSESS PROBABLE FREQUENCY OF DRY AND WET WEEKS. GEOGRAPHIC SPACE, 13(42), 149-167. SID. https://sid.ir/paper/91501/en

Vancouver: Copy

MIRMOUSAVI SEYYED HOSSEIN, ZOHREHVANDI HASSAN. ANALYSIS OF WEEKLY RAINFALL IN HAMEDAN PROVINCE TO ASSESS PROBABLE FREQUENCY OF DRY AND WET WEEKS. GEOGRAPHIC SPACE[Internet]. 2013;13(42):149-167. Available from: https://sid.ir/paper/91501/en

IEEE: Copy

SEYYED HOSSEIN MIRMOUSAVI, and HASSAN ZOHREHVANDI, “ANALYSIS OF WEEKLY RAINFALL IN HAMEDAN PROVINCE TO ASSESS PROBABLE FREQUENCY OF DRY AND WET WEEKS,” GEOGRAPHIC SPACE, vol. 13, no. 42, pp. 149–167, 2013, [Online]. Available: https://sid.ir/paper/91501/en

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