ANALYSIS OF RAINY DAYS OCCURRENCE PROBABILITY USING MARKOV CHAIN MODEL FOR CITY OF URMIA IRAN

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JALALI MASOUD; KARGAR HALIMEH; SOLTANI SOGHRA

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Journal: GEOGRAPHIC SPACE Year:2011 | Volume:11 | Issue:35 Page(s): 235-257

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Title

ANALYSIS OF RAINY DAYS OCCURRENCE PROBABILITY USING MARKOV CHAIN MODEL FOR CITY OF URMIA IRAN

Author(s)

JALALI MASOUD | KARGAR HALIMEH | SOLTANI SOGHRA | Issue Writer Certificate

Keywords

DRY DAYQ2

RAINY DAYQ2

MARKOV CHAINQ1

MAXIMUM LIKELIHOODQ2

OCCURRENCE PROBABILITYQ2

URMIA CITYQ1

Abstract

At present paper the frequency and the spell of RAINY DAYs in Urmia have been analyzed by using probability rules and MARKOV CHAIN technique. The 48-year rain data (1961-2008) for Urmia synoptic station is used. The frequency matrix is formed and the probability matrix of rainy DRY DAYs is created. Accordingly based on MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD method, recurrence interval is estimated on the basis of succeeding power on probability matrix. Rainy and DRY DAYs have 5 and 1 year return period. Rainfall OCCURRENCE PROBABILITY on each day was about 0.2057 and dry OCCURRENCE PROBABILITY was 0.7943. Continuous return period on RAINY DAYs with continuity of 1 to 5 day has been calculated. According to the calculations it was clear that maximum OCCURRENCE PROBABILITY on RAINY DAYs was for spring especially (in April) whit 2 or 3 RAINY DAY return period probability being was equal to 4.4 and 13 days respectively.

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APA: Copy

JALALI, MASOUD, KARGAR, HALIMEH, & SOLTANI, SOGHRA. (2011). ANALYSIS OF RAINY DAYS OCCURRENCE PROBABILITY USING MARKOV CHAIN MODEL FOR CITY OF URMIA IRAN. GEOGRAPHIC SPACE, 11(35), 235-257. SID. https://sid.ir/paper/91639/en

Vancouver: Copy

JALALI MASOUD, KARGAR HALIMEH, SOLTANI SOGHRA. ANALYSIS OF RAINY DAYS OCCURRENCE PROBABILITY USING MARKOV CHAIN MODEL FOR CITY OF URMIA IRAN. GEOGRAPHIC SPACE[Internet]. 2011;11(35):235-257. Available from: https://sid.ir/paper/91639/en

IEEE: Copy

MASOUD JALALI, HALIMEH KARGAR, and SOGHRA SOLTANI, “ANALYSIS OF RAINY DAYS OCCURRENCE PROBABILITY USING MARKOV CHAIN MODEL FOR CITY OF URMIA IRAN,” GEOGRAPHIC SPACE, vol. 11, no. 35, pp. 235–257, 2011, [Online]. Available: https://sid.ir/paper/91639/en

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