ANALYZING OF BUSINESS CYCLE OF PRIVATE RESIDENTIAL INVESTMENT (MARKOV-SWITCHING VECTOR AUTO REGRESSION MODEL)

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AKBARI NEMATOLLAH; YAR MOHAMMADIAN NASER

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Journal: URBAN MANAGEMENT Year:2013 | Volume:10 | Issue:30 Page(s): 239-252

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Information Journal Paper

Title

ANALYZING OF BUSINESS CYCLE OF PRIVATE RESIDENTIAL INVESTMENT (MARKOV-SWITCHING VECTOR AUTO REGRESSION MODEL)

Author(s)

AKBARI NEMATOLLAH | YAR MOHAMMADIAN NASER | Issue Writer Certificate

Keywords

REAL ESTATE BUSINESS CYCLEQ2

PRIVATE RESIDENTIAL INVESTMENTQ2

MARKOV SWITCHING VECTOR AUTO REGRESSION MODELQ2

Abstract

Business cycles are the characteristics of the real estate market that get less attention in economics literature. Real estate market on the one hand is relatively high affected by economic business cycle and on the other hand significantly can affect economic as it can cause big financial crisis. Such importance of house market makes analyzing of real estate market Inevitable. In this paper close attention is paid to business cycle in real estate market in Iran and PRIVATE RESIDENTIAL INVESTMENT behavior using Markov-switching VAR model is analyzed. Results achieved from Iran economy shows probability of staying in boom period is more than transition from it (95% vs. 5%) and probability of transition of stagnation period is more than staying in that (73% vs. 27%). According to these results expected duration of boom period is five time longer than expected duration of stagnation period.

Cites

ECONOMIC INSTABILITY AND ECONOMIC GROWTH IN IRAN’S PROVINCES PRINCIPLE COMPONENTS ANALYSIS

References

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APA: Copy

AKBARI, NEMATOLLAH, & YAR MOHAMMADIAN, NASER. (2013). ANALYZING OF BUSINESS CYCLE OF PRIVATE RESIDENTIAL INVESTMENT (MARKOV-SWITCHING VECTOR AUTO REGRESSION MODEL). URBAN MANAGEMENT, 10(30), 239-252. SID. https://sid.ir/paper/91953/en

Vancouver: Copy

AKBARI NEMATOLLAH, YAR MOHAMMADIAN NASER. ANALYZING OF BUSINESS CYCLE OF PRIVATE RESIDENTIAL INVESTMENT (MARKOV-SWITCHING VECTOR AUTO REGRESSION MODEL). URBAN MANAGEMENT[Internet]. 2013;10(30):239-252. Available from: https://sid.ir/paper/91953/en

IEEE: Copy

NEMATOLLAH AKBARI, and NASER YAR MOHAMMADIAN, “ANALYZING OF BUSINESS CYCLE OF PRIVATE RESIDENTIAL INVESTMENT (MARKOV-SWITCHING VECTOR AUTO REGRESSION MODEL),” URBAN MANAGEMENT, vol. 10, no. 30, pp. 239–252, 2013, [Online]. Available: https://sid.ir/paper/91953/en

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