STRENGTHENING PREDICTION IN INTELLIGENCE ANALYSIS: CASE STUDY OF POLITICAL INSTABILITY IN MIDDLE EAST

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MOHAMMADI LORD ABDOL MAHMOUD

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Journal Paper

Paper Information

Journal: STRATEGIC STUDIES QUARTERLY Year:2012 | Volume:15 | Issue:2 (56) Page(s): 91-116

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Information Journal Paper

Title

STRENGTHENING PREDICTION IN INTELLIGENCE ANALYSIS: CASE STUDY OF POLITICAL INSTABILITY IN MIDDLE EAST

Author(s)

MOHAMMADI LORD ABDOL MAHMOUD | Issue Writer Certificate

Keywords

PREDICTIONQ2

INTELLIGENCE ANALYSISQ2

POLITICAL INSTABILITYQ2

CAUSAL MODLEQ2

Abstract

This article tries to evaluate some PREDICTION modles of intelligence agencies on POLITICAL INSTABILITY, and explain their failure in predicting recent Middle East developments. Author, in his hypothesis, claims that quantitative PREDICTION modles of intelligence agencies because of reliance on correlation rather than causation, and lack of adequate knowledge of their cases, has a limited capability for PREDICTION. To evaluate his hypothesis, author describes quantitative modle’s PREDICTION of Middle East developments and then compares it with his own qualitative model’s PREDICTION.

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References

SOCIOLOGICAL EXPLANATION OF POLITICAL INSTABILITY :A CROSS-NATIONAL STUDY

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APA: Copy

MOHAMMADI LORD, ABDOL MAHMOUD. (2012). STRENGTHENING PREDICTION IN INTELLIGENCE ANALYSIS: CASE STUDY OF POLITICAL INSTABILITY IN MIDDLE EAST. STRATEGIC STUDIES QUARTERLY, 15(2 (56)), 91-116. SID. https://sid.ir/paper/92668/en

Vancouver: Copy

MOHAMMADI LORD ABDOL MAHMOUD. STRENGTHENING PREDICTION IN INTELLIGENCE ANALYSIS: CASE STUDY OF POLITICAL INSTABILITY IN MIDDLE EAST. STRATEGIC STUDIES QUARTERLY[Internet]. 2012;15(2 (56)):91-116. Available from: https://sid.ir/paper/92668/en

IEEE: Copy

ABDOL MAHMOUD MOHAMMADI LORD, “STRENGTHENING PREDICTION IN INTELLIGENCE ANALYSIS: CASE STUDY OF POLITICAL INSTABILITY IN MIDDLE EAST,” STRATEGIC STUDIES QUARTERLY, vol. 15, no. 2 (56), pp. 91–116, 2012, [Online]. Available: https://sid.ir/paper/92668/en

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