DESIGNING A NEW MODEL TO FORECAST NATURAL GAS SHORT RUN DEMAND OF THE RESIDENTIAL SECTOR

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SADEGHI H.; ZOU ALFAGHARI MAHDI

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Journal: ENERGY ECONOMICS REVIEW Year:2010 | Volume:6 | Issue:23 Page(s): 43-70

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Title

DESIGNING A NEW MODEL TO FORECAST NATURAL GAS SHORT RUN DEMAND OF THE RESIDENTIAL SECTOR

Author(s)

SADEGHI H. | ZOU ALFAGHARI MAHDI | Issue Writer Certificate

Keywords

FORECASTINGQ2

NATURAL GAS DEMAND OF THE RESIDENTIAL SECTORQ3

WAVELET TRANSFORMQ2

NEURAL NETWORKQ2

ARIMAQ2

Abstract

In this paper we design a new model that integrates linear and non linear models to forecast the trend natural gas daily demand in the residential sector of the country and isolate the factors that impact daily demand. We use the model to forecast the natural gas daily demand of the residential sector for the next 10 days in a “step by step” manner, using the ARIMA, Feed forward Artificial NEURAL NETWORK, and NEURAL NETWORK - WAVELET TRANSFORM models and the new proposed model. The results indicate that the proposed model has fewer FORECASTING errors and higher accuracy in FORECASTING the natural gas daily demand of the residential sector of the country. The NEURAL NETWORK-Wavelet Transform, Feed forward Artificial NEURAL NETWORK and ARIMA models rank lower than the proposed model in the given order.

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APA: Copy

SADEGHI, H., & ZOU ALFAGHARI, MAHDI. (2010). DESIGNING A NEW MODEL TO FORECAST NATURAL GAS SHORT RUN DEMAND OF THE RESIDENTIAL SECTOR. ENERGY ECONOMICS REVIEW, 6(23), 43-70. SID. https://sid.ir/paper/99552/en

Vancouver: Copy

SADEGHI H., ZOU ALFAGHARI MAHDI. DESIGNING A NEW MODEL TO FORECAST NATURAL GAS SHORT RUN DEMAND OF THE RESIDENTIAL SECTOR. ENERGY ECONOMICS REVIEW[Internet]. 2010;6(23):43-70. Available from: https://sid.ir/paper/99552/en

IEEE: Copy

H. SADEGHI, and MAHDI ZOU ALFAGHARI, “DESIGNING A NEW MODEL TO FORECAST NATURAL GAS SHORT RUN DEMAND OF THE RESIDENTIAL SECTOR,” ENERGY ECONOMICS REVIEW, vol. 6, no. 23, pp. 43–70, 2010, [Online]. Available: https://sid.ir/paper/99552/en

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