MODELLING ELECTRICITY PRICE LIBERALIZATION IN THE INDUSTRIAL SECTOR

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MEHREGAN N.; GHORBANI V.; HAGHANI MAHMOUD

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Paper Information

Journal: ENERGY ECONOMICS REVIEW Year:2010 | Volume:6 | Issue:23 Page(s): 91-119

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Information Journal Paper

Title

MODELLING ELECTRICITY PRICE LIBERALIZATION IN THE INDUSTRIAL SECTOR

Author(s)

MEHREGAN N. | GHORBANI V. | HAGHANI MAHMOUD | Issue Writer Certificate

Keywords

ARDLQ3

PRICE LIBERALIZATIONQ3

DEMAND FUNCTIONQ3

PRICE ELASTICITYQ3

INCOME ELASTICITYQ3

REAL PRICEQ3

Abstract

High electricity consumption in the industrial sector of Iran is an important issue. PRICE LIBERALIZATION and elimination of electricity subsidy is one way of reducing electricity consumption. In this study we estimated the DEMAND FUNCTION of electricity in the industrial sector for 1975 to 2007, using the ARDL method. The results indicated short and long-run price elasticities of -0.05 and -0.28 and short and long-run income elasticities of 0.27 and 1.52. We use these elasticities to consider two potential scenarios for removal of subsidies. The first scenario would adopt a three year time horizon of 2010 to 2012, while the second one allows for five years (2010-2014). In each scenario we considered both a monotonous increase of nominal prices and a monotonous increase of REAL PRICEs. The results indicate that in the first scenario the price will be 354.9, 557.4 and 833.2 rials per kilowatt / h, respectively in 2010, 2011 and 2012, while under the second scenario price will be 310.55, 415.24, 519.93, 624.62 and 729.31 rials per kilowatt / h respectively in 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013 and 2014.

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