ANALYSIS OF THE FREQUENCY AND THE SPELL OF RAINY DAYS USING MARKOVE CHAIN MODEL FOR CITY OF TABRIZ, IRAN

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ASAKEREH H.

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Journal: IRAN-WATER RESOURCES RESEARCH Year:2008 | Volume:4 | Issue:2 (11) Page(s): 46-56

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Title

ANALYSIS OF THE FREQUENCY AND THE SPELL OF RAINY DAYS USING MARKOVE CHAIN MODEL FOR CITY OF TABRIZ, IRAN

Author(s)

ASAKEREH H. | Issue Writer Certificate

Keywords

RAINY DAYQ2

MARKOV CHAINQ2

OCCURANCE PROBABILITYQ4

MAXIMUM LIKELIHOODQ4

TABRIZ CITYQ4

Abstract

In this paper the frequency and the spell of RAINY DAYs is analyzed for the city of Tabriz in northwestern Iran. This is done based on probability rule, stochastic process, and MARKOV CHAIN technique. The 55 year rain data (1951-2005) for Tabriz synoptic station is used. The frequency matrix is formed and the probability matrix of rainy - dry days is created accordingly based on MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD method. Recurrence interval is estimated based on persistence probability calculated based on succeed power on probability matrix. Rainy and dry days have 5- and 1-year return period (e.g. probability of 0.2206 and 0.7794), respectively. Finally the 1-5 day rain spell has calculated. The most probable spell length occurred in spring (mainly in May). For example, a 2-day rain in May would occur with a return period of 2.5 days.

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APA: Copy

ASAKEREH, H.. (2008). ANALYSIS OF THE FREQUENCY AND THE SPELL OF RAINY DAYS USING MARKOVE CHAIN MODEL FOR CITY OF TABRIZ, IRAN. IRAN-WATER RESOURCES RESEARCH, 4(2 (11)), 46-56. SID. https://sid.ir/paper/99983/en

Vancouver: Copy

ASAKEREH H.. ANALYSIS OF THE FREQUENCY AND THE SPELL OF RAINY DAYS USING MARKOVE CHAIN MODEL FOR CITY OF TABRIZ, IRAN. IRAN-WATER RESOURCES RESEARCH[Internet]. 2008;4(2 (11)):46-56. Available from: https://sid.ir/paper/99983/en

IEEE: Copy

H. ASAKEREH, “ANALYSIS OF THE FREQUENCY AND THE SPELL OF RAINY DAYS USING MARKOVE CHAIN MODEL FOR CITY OF TABRIZ, IRAN,” IRAN-WATER RESOURCES RESEARCH, vol. 4, no. 2 (11), pp. 46–56, 2008, [Online]. Available: https://sid.ir/paper/99983/en

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