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Issue Info: 
  • Year: 

    1388
  • Volume: 

    11
Measures: 
  • Views: 

    463
  • Downloads: 

    0
Keywords: 
Abstract: 

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Yearly Impact:   مرکز اطلاعات علمی Scientific Information Database (SID) - Trusted Source for Research and Academic Resources

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Issue Info: 
  • Year: 

    2022
  • Volume: 

    7
  • Issue: 

    2
  • Pages: 

    23-54
Measures: 
  • Citations: 

    0
  • Views: 

    138
  • Downloads: 

    7
Abstract: 

Purpose: The flourishing of political parties and currents is one of the signs of the degree of development in societies. In contemporary Iran and since the formation of the constitutional movement, political currents have gone through many ups and downs and it can be said that political currents in Iran after the Islamic Revolution have not yet reached the stage of institutionalization and stability. A characteristic feature of political currents in Iran is the divergence and division among political currents in recent decades, and this can be one of the reasons for the instability and cross-sectional and seasonal activity of political parties in Iran. Therefore, the necessity of leading research seeks to answer the question of how factors and divergence among political currents in Iran after the victory of the Islamic Revolution can be analyzed? And what are the SCENARIOs for the advancement of political currents in Iran?Method: To answer this question, the method of causal-layer analysis, which is one of the qualitative methods in futures research, has been used.Findings: The research findings indicate that this divergence is due to a wide range of reasons from the level of causal systems (from the institutionalization of power to the formation of parties as elitist initiatives), worldview and discourse (from charismatic political authority to culture). Subsidiary-follower politics to myth-metaphor (Iranian individualism to belief in a strong state-weak society) can be analyzed.Conclusions: Three SCENARIOs for the future of Iranian political currents can be considered: integration of currents as the security valve of the political system, the collapse of political currents in the traditional form, integration and consolidation in new social movements (virtualized parties).

Yearly Impact: مرکز اطلاعات علمی Scientific Information Database (SID) - Trusted Source for Research and Academic Resources

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Issue Info: 
  • Year: 

    2015
  • Volume: 

    3
Measures: 
  • Views: 

    311
  • Downloads: 

    0
Abstract: 

ONE OF THE FUTURES STUDIES’ METHODS FOR DEVELOPING SCENARIOS FOR THE FUTURE IS PROBABILITY TREE (SCENARIO TREE) WHICH IS A SUBGROUP OF EVENT SEQUENCES. THE LOGIC OF EVEN SEQUENCES IN RELATION TO SCENARIOS IS THAT WE NEED EVENTS HAPPENING IN A SEQUENCE TO SHAPE THE FUTURE JUST LIKE HOW IT WORKS FOR THE PAST. IN ORDER TO REACH THE VISIONS AND FORMATIONS IN THE FUTURE, WE CREATE A TREE WITH LEAVES AND BRANCHES BASED ON THE THE EVENT PATHWAY, EACH PATHWAY FROM THE STARTING POINT TO THE LAST SUBBRANCH DEFINE A SCENARIO. THIS CONCEPT IS MOSTLY USED IN AREAS OF MANAGEMENT, RISK ASSESSMENT AND STRATEGIC MANAGEMENT AND ITS IMPLICATION IN FORESIGHT IS A RATHER NEW CONCEPT WITH ITS OWN PROS AND CONS. THE MOST PROMINENT FEATURE OF THIS METHOD IS THAT IT PRESENTS A GENERAL IMAGE WITH OCCURNECE DEGREES OF PROBABILITY IN A GENERAL SCHEME TO LEADERS AND EXPERTS. IN THIS PAPER WE ENDEAVORED TO ADDRESS THE BASIC CONCEPTS OF THE METHOD AND HOW A PROBABILITY TREE CAN HELP US IN A QUANTITATIVE AND QUALITATIVE WAY TO SHAPE THE SCENARIOS FOR THE FUTURE.

Yearly Impact:   مرکز اطلاعات علمی Scientific Information Database (SID) - Trusted Source for Research and Academic Resources

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Issue Info: 
  • Year: 

    2024
  • Volume: 

    13
  • Issue: 

    1
  • Pages: 

    87-110
Measures: 
  • Citations: 

    0
  • Views: 

    105
  • Downloads: 

    55
Abstract: 

Introduction: The current research tries to identify the factors affecting the growth of professional sports clubs, which affect the development of the sports industry, by focusing on the strategic foresight of Iran's professional sports with a world-class approach.Methods: The data of this qualitative research, which had an exploratory-fundamental nature, was collected through targeted sampling with the snowball technique and based on semi-structured in-depth interviews with 20 experts in the field of professional sports clubs. A detailed interpretative understanding and preliminary and theoretical codings determined that professional sports clubs can build their desired future based on the requirements of shaping the future, by overcoming the weight of the past, the pressure of the present and in line with the tension of the future and the choice of proactive behavior in facing the future, set a perspective for it.Results: In this research, a total of fifteen main factors affecting the strategic foresight of Iran's professional sports with a world-class approach include: sports structure, foundational factors, hardware infrastructure, background factors, key stakeholders, development with a global approach, actors Key, human resource development, and possible consequences, global development consequences, preferred future, uncertainties, drivers and surprises were identified.Conclusion: In general, economic considerations are described in world-class professional sports more than anything else, although cultural elements also play a role in this field. Despite the importance of culture in globalization discourses in sports, economic considerations play an important role.

Yearly Impact: مرکز اطلاعات علمی Scientific Information Database (SID) - Trusted Source for Research and Academic Resources

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Author(s): 

MISHRA V.

Issue Info: 
  • Year: 

    2013
  • Volume: 

    7
  • Issue: 

    SUPPLEMENT 1
  • Pages: 

    20-21
Measures: 
  • Citations: 

    0
  • Views: 

    221
  • Downloads: 

    0
Keywords: 
Abstract: 

The development of assisted reproductive technologies (ARTs) in India began with efforts to create “test tube babies” within vitro fertilization in the 1980s. But rather than commit public funding to advance such research, the Indian government withheld the use of government funds for research on human embryos, largely as a byproduct of the debate over population control. India with a population of 1.2 Bn and ticking also represents underline a major problem of infertility and it is quite paradox that country with large amount of population also has a large section of people who does not have a child. ARTs encompass various procedures ranging from relatively simple intra uterine insemination (IUI), IVF, ICSI, IMSI, Cryo Preservation and Vitrification. Surrogacy which is not a technique but n arrangement is also included under the umbrella term of ARTs.In India there is an unprecedented and unregulated growth of ART clinics providing IVF procedures over the years within the framework of medical tourism. IVF is the latest addition. Low cost, easy access and easy availability and economical prices of IVF drugs has fueled further growth. India is estimated to be doing currently 80000 cycles per year. To be more precise it is estimated that 70000 to 85000 Ovum pick up and 90000 to 95000 as embryo transfer and it is expected that the growth of IVF in India is growing at the rate of 10-15% every year. The estimated number of clinics in India is almost 500 and going up every day and with such high growth and potential in IVF segment has attracted close attention of the Government. Also easy availability of Surrogate mother, gamete donors have made India a favoured destination for various IVF procedures especially Surrogacy. The resulting surge of the ART Industry in the country has posed a number of ethical, legal, social and moral dilemmas and the Government is working towards bringing regulation in form of all ART regulation bill and rules-2008 which is drafted by Ministry of Health and Family welfare and the Indian Council of Medical Research. It is important and welcome step in the direction. New technology introduced by one clinic is quickly offered by others as a matter of survival. But unlike other areas of medicine, in which new therapies are developed after controlled research in humans, ARTs often are introduced directly from the lab as clinical services for patients. Data are collected as patients are treated with untested new approaches, creating the only area of medicine where patients come for treatment but in reality pay for the privilege of being research subjects. The irony is hard to ignore: The research protection policies applied elsewhere in medical research were driven by efforts to prevent exploitation of the vulnerable-yet patients confronting infertility are often the most vulnerable. There are a few straightforward ways to bring assisted reproduction into the fold. Research in assisted reproduction should receive the same sort of approval and oversight as government funded research. Such policies are long overdue. Bringing ARTs into the open will better serve patients and improve research oversight.

Yearly Impact: مرکز اطلاعات علمی Scientific Information Database (SID) - Trusted Source for Research and Academic Resources

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Issue Info: 
  • Year: 

    2014
  • Volume: 

    4
  • Issue: 

    16
  • Pages: 

    61-87
Measures: 
  • Citations: 

    0
  • Views: 

    1144
  • Downloads: 

    0
Abstract: 

The main purpose of this paper is designing the market future SCENARIOs of Mahan Sepahan Steel Company. In order to design SCENARIOs the method of Global Business Network (GBN) is used to construct SCENARIOs. This method is based on the uncertainty and the most common SCENARIO building in the world and efficient way to design SCENARIOs, especially at the organizational level. According to the SCENARIO planning stages in this method, firstly time horizon and SCENARIOs subject were identified. Then with data collection and semi-structured interviews with experts, environmental factors affecting the market of company including trends, predetermined elements and factors of uncertainty were identified. In the next stage by structured interviews with 22 experts and managers of the company, two critical uncertainties were identified which are: "Sanctions" and "Government support". Then by using the critical uncertainties and creation SCENARIO matrix and by referring to all of the information gathered in previous stages, four SCENARIOs were designed: "limited market and share declining", "extensive internal market and increased competition", "extensive internal and external market", "free and fully competitive market".

Yearly Impact: مرکز اطلاعات علمی Scientific Information Database (SID) - Trusted Source for Research and Academic Resources

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Author(s): 

Issue Info: 
  • Year: 

    2017
  • Volume: 

    58
  • Issue: 

    4
  • Pages: 

    0-0
Measures: 
  • Citations: 

    1
  • Views: 

    113
  • Downloads: 

    0
Keywords: 
Abstract: 

Yearly Impact: مرکز اطلاعات علمی Scientific Information Database (SID) - Trusted Source for Research and Academic Resources

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Author(s): 

NABIPOUR IRAJ

Issue Info: 
  • Year: 

    2015
  • Volume: 

    18
  • Issue: 

    3
  • Pages: 

    690-700
Measures: 
  • Citations: 

    0
  • Views: 

    1768
  • Downloads: 

    0
Abstract: 

SCENARIO planning is a process that stimulates imaginative, creative thinking to better prepare an organization for the future. It is also as a tool to promote innovation activities in organizations. SCENARIO planning may provide alternate futures in which strategies of the organization develop. Very recently, Jay Ogilvy introduced an eight steps SCENARIO planning and strategic forecasting. According to this eight-step process, SCENARIO planning has two major parts: first, choosing which SCENARIO logics to flesh out, a task that comprises the first five steps, and second, telling the actual story, its implications and early indicators, which compromise the remaining steps. In order to identify opportunities and challenges faced by biomedicine sciences there are continually increasing trends for SCENARIO planning in the field. In highly uncertain environments, as are faced in biomedicine sciences, SCENARIO planning can provide a robust, flexible path to navigate. By evaluating the implications of societal, economic and policy impacts of these SCENARIOs, biosciences organizations can determine how to manage a transition to regenerative medicine and personalized medicine, both of which could disrupt current healthcare systems.

Yearly Impact: مرکز اطلاعات علمی Scientific Information Database (SID) - Trusted Source for Research and Academic Resources

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Issue Info: 
  • Year: 

    2022
  • Volume: 

    7
  • Issue: 

    2
  • Pages: 

    133-154
Measures: 
  • Citations: 

    0
  • Views: 

    169
  • Downloads: 

    23
Abstract: 

Purpose: Due to the great damage that Corona has inflicted on the tourism industry, neglecting the future of tourism marketing can pose a serious challenge to this industry and economy and have irreparable consequences. The purpose of this study is to identify key factors, drivers and future SCENARIOs of the tourism marketing.Method: The present study is applied-developmental in terms of purpose, descriptive-analytical in nature and mixed (qualitative-quantitative) in terms of methodology. The method of this research is SCENARIO writing using MicMac software to identify key drivers and SCENARIOs with Wizard SCENARIO software.Findings: First, the future trends and meta-trends of post-corona tourism marketing were identified, of which 41 key trends and 8 meta-trends were identified. According to experts, 19 key factors in the future of tourism marketing in post- corona were identified using the cross-impact analysis and questionnaire completion. Then, using the cross-impact analysis questionnaire and with the help of the Wizard SCENARIO software, two groups of favorable and unfavorable SCENARIOs were identified.Conclusion: Based on the research results, there are two favorable SCENARIOs and two unfavorable SCENARIOs that can help marketing and tourism policy-makers and decision-makers to take into account the effective factors and SCENARIOs proposed for proper planning of industry in the post-Corona era.

Yearly Impact: مرکز اطلاعات علمی Scientific Information Database (SID) - Trusted Source for Research and Academic Resources

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Issue Info: 
  • Year: 

    2023
  • Volume: 

    6
  • Issue: 

    2
  • Pages: 

    57-75
Measures: 
  • Citations: 

    0
  • Views: 

    39
  • Downloads: 

    5
Abstract: 

This research aims to identify the factors that influence the growth of cultural tourism in Iran and propose a corresponding model. Following the identification of these factors, a SCENARIO is written to optimize their utilization. The research employs a combination of qualitative and quantitative methods to achieve its objectives and finalize the factors. Semi-structured interviews are conducted with experts in the field. In the second phase, after the formal validity of the factors is confirmed, their fuzzy cognitive mapping and SCENARIO are designed using the FCMapper and Pajek software programs. As the results show, the factor of “creating investment opportunities and attracting financial resources in the field of cultural tourism” is the most influential, while the factor of “providing diverse and creative services in Iran’s cultural tourism” is the most impressionable for the development of cultural tourism in Iran. In the task of SCENARIO writing, it has been discovered that, by focusing on attracting financial resources, managers can enhance the infrastructure, create a context for interaction with other countries, identify new target markets, and offer creative services to Iranian cultural tourists through diverse tours. The findings can help stakeholders, managers, and policymakers in Iran’s tourism industry design and develop plans and strategies for the growth of Iran’s cultural tourism

Yearly Impact: مرکز اطلاعات علمی Scientific Information Database (SID) - Trusted Source for Research and Academic Resources

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