آینده پژوهی انقلاب اسلامی
سال:1401 | دوره:3 | شماره:2 |تعداد مقالات:11

Looking at the future and the direction of movement of different religious schools originates from the ideology that governs them. The formation of the world government in the two schools of Judaism and Islam also arose from this view. In this article, in order to understand this issue, in order to understand the prevailing approach in both schools, with the method of qualitative content analysis, after examining the three concepts of utopia, promise and apocalypse, from the perspective of which school at the global level, with what characteristics, can best serve humanity. To guide towards building a desirable future, the important characteristics claimed in the formation of the world government of two schools of Judaism and Islam were extracted and compared with each other. The most important common features include seven features and the most important differences also include six features. In terms of the features required for a school to form a single world government in the end of time, by examining the features proposed for both the Jewish and Islamic world governments in the future, the school of Islam has the capacity, talent and superior and higher characteristics than the formation of a world-wide government. And without political orientation towards a specific nation or race, he seeks to achieve justice in all the affairs of the society.

The current research, with a future research approach, identifies the most important factors affecting the future state of security relations between the Islamic Republic of Iran and the Republic of Azerbaijan. This research is applied in terms of purpose, and in terms of method, it is a combination of documentary and survey methods, and in terms of nature, it is based on the new methods of future research, analytical and exploratory science, which has been carried out by using a combination of quantitative and qualitative models,Therefore, according to the nature of the research, this research seeks to answer the question of what are the drivers or key factors affecting the future state of the security relations between the Islamic Republic of Iran and the Republic of Azerbaijan and to what extent and how do they affect each other? In order to answer the research question, Meek Mak and Delphi structural analysis methods have been used. In this regard, after holding initial discussion sessions with fifteen elites and executive and academic experts (the statistical community of the research) who had sufficient expertise and experience in security issues and international relations, they were asked to discuss the drivers in the framework of the cross-effects matrix., give points based on the degree of influence and effectiveness. Twenty primary drivers were identified in the form of four general dimensions. Then, the primary drivers were defined in the framework of the cross-effect matrix in the MikMak prospective software. The output of the scatter plate of the propellants shows the instability of the system. Finally, according to the high score of direct and indirect influence, six key drivers and levers with the greatest influence on the future state of security relations between Iran and the Republic of Azerbaijan were Recognized.

Scenario writing is one of the most widely used methods and one of the special methods of future research. The use of this method regarding future study projects in Iran has been greatly expanded in recent years, and researchers have used this method in various subjects in their research. This research examined all scientific research articles in Iran using the scenario writing method and selected one hundred articles published in the last five years with the criteria of having a specific case study, related to the future and the correct use of the method, for a detailed and final review. Then, using the meta-analysis method, the selected articles were examined and they were evaluated with 12 indicators, including exploratory or normative, topic, time horizon, source, type of data, the presence or absence of fluidity in the use of the method, the combination or non-combination of the method (scenario writing). ) evaluated with other methods, being single-layered or multi-layered, interaction-oriented or expert-oriented, creative-oriented or data-oriented, single-disciplinary or multi-disciplinary, and the use or non-use of software, and finally provided recommendations regarding the use of the scenario writing method in conducting future research projects in Iran

Electoral systems are a fundamental part of democratic political systems. The Islamic Republic of Iran is not exempt from this rule due to its democratic nature. In the system of the Islamic Republic, political legitimacy is one of the pillars of the system, and the strength and weakness of this issue is also due to the role of the people. One of the manifestations of the popular acceptability of the election system is during which the higher the participation rate, the higher the acceptance of that political system. For this reason, the importance of studying and researching elections and the level of participation becomes clear. Due to its special characteristics, participation will be more important in the elections of the Islamic Council. The current research was designed and implemented with the aim of identifying the possible futures of participation in the 12th Islamic Council elections in Iran, which finally, according to experts, there are three key uncertainties: "existence or non-existence of political vitality", "opening and non-opening of the economy" and " Security and insecurity of the election environment",And it has created four scenario spaces with the titles "Standing in the dust", "I want to survive", "Towards honor" and "Out of breath".

Not only the Islam is not against the production of wealth, but the vision of a modern Islamic civilization is free from poverty and material need. But the prominent liberal democracy, which was depicted as the end of history, justice is the main focus of the economy in the modern Islamic civilization. In the second stage of Islamic revolution, we need identification and specification, as well as the design of the ideal model in the pillars of Islamic civilization. Many researches have been done in Islamic economy and there are also researches on the subject of economy in Islamic civilization. But according to the popular nature of the Islamic economy and the model of resistance economy, no research found about most important part of this popular economy that is "business", The method of descriptive research content analysis has been used for identification and specifications as well as the design of a desirable business model (in the private sector) in Islamic civilization. Jihad, team building, formal structure, productivity and quality, regularity, tact and taking advantage of opportunities and justice as the components of business and divine gifts and improvement of business environment as the components of environment have been identified and explained.