Meteorological Drought Risk Assessment Using Markov Chain Technique and Introducing a Forecasting Model of Future Periods Impacted by Climate Change (Case Study: Afin Catchment)

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KAVAKEBI GH.; MOUSAVI BAYGI M.; ALIZADEH A.; MOSAEDI A.; JABBARI NOGHABI M.

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Journal Paper

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Journal: Iranian Journal of Irrigation and Drainage Year:2020 | Volume:14 | Issue:4 Page(s): 1107-1120

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Title

Meteorological Drought Risk Assessment Using Markov Chain Technique and Introducing a Forecasting Model of Future Periods Impacted by Climate Change (Case Study: Afin Catchment)

Author(s)

Keywords

Natural Risk

Drought Risk

Questionnaire

Climate Change

CORDEX

Abstract

Drought is one of the natural and recurring climatic phenomena that has various effects on economic, social and environmental sectors. Drought, itself, is not a challenge, but it is the beginning of a crisis depending on the degree of vulnerability and impact it has on various sectors. Therefore, this study has attempted to calculate the risk of drought for the baseline period using Natural Risk definition and to estimate the best model for predicting its rate for future periods affected by different methods under Climate Change. Accordingly, Drought Risk was calculated using the two meteorological drought indices SPEI and eRDI the for years 1983-2015. Then, was determined the degree of vulnerability for the Afin area using a Questionnaire. After estimating the risk during this time period, with the help of the Markov chain statistical technique, the Drought Risk characteristics of the region were obtained. Using the four modeling methods the best Drought Risk prediction model was determined and by using the meteorological variables studied from the three climate models of the CORDEX project the Drought Risk for the years 2020-2100was predicted. The results of this study showed a decrease in risk for 2020-2046 and an increase in 2047-2000 based on both RCP4. 5 and RCP8. 5 compared to the period 1983-1995.

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APA: Copy

KAVAKEBI, GH., MOUSAVI BAYGI, M., ALIZADEH, A., MOSAEDI, A., & JABBARI NOGHABI, M.. (2020). Meteorological Drought Risk Assessment Using Markov Chain Technique and Introducing a Forecasting Model of Future Periods Impacted by Climate Change (Case Study: Afin Catchment). IRANIAN JOURNAL OF IRRIGATION AND DRAINAGE, 14(4 ), 1107-1120. SID. https://sid.ir/paper/1056962/en

Vancouver: Copy

KAVAKEBI GH., MOUSAVI BAYGI M., ALIZADEH A., MOSAEDI A., JABBARI NOGHABI M.. Meteorological Drought Risk Assessment Using Markov Chain Technique and Introducing a Forecasting Model of Future Periods Impacted by Climate Change (Case Study: Afin Catchment). IRANIAN JOURNAL OF IRRIGATION AND DRAINAGE[Internet]. 2020;14(4 ):1107-1120. Available from: https://sid.ir/paper/1056962/en

IEEE: Copy

GH. KAVAKEBI, M. MOUSAVI BAYGI, A. ALIZADEH, A. MOSAEDI, and M. JABBARI NOGHABI, “Meteorological Drought Risk Assessment Using Markov Chain Technique and Introducing a Forecasting Model of Future Periods Impacted by Climate Change (Case Study: Afin Catchment),” IRANIAN JOURNAL OF IRRIGATION AND DRAINAGE, vol. 14, no. 4 , pp. 1107–1120, 2020, [Online]. Available: https://sid.ir/paper/1056962/en

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