COMPARISON TRADITIONAL METHODS AND GENETIC ALGORITHM IN FORECASTING PRICE FLUCTUATIONS OF AGRICULTURAL SELECTED PRODUCTS

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MIRZAEI ABBAS; ZIAABADI MARYAM; ZARE MEHRJERDI MOHAMMAD REZA; MAHMOUDI SAJAD

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Journal: AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS: IRANIAN JOURNAL OF AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS (ECONOMICS AND AGRICULTURE JOURNAL) Year:2013 | Volume:7 | Issue:2 Page(s): 1-18

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Title

COMPARISON TRADITIONAL METHODS AND GENETIC ALGORITHM IN FORECASTING PRICE FLUCTUATIONS OF AGRICULTURAL SELECTED PRODUCTS

Author(s)

MIRZAEI ABBAS | ZIAABADI MARYAM | ZARE MEHRJERDI MOHAMMAD REZA | MAHMOUDI SAJAD | Issue Writer Certificate

Keywords

FORECASTQ2

PRICEQ2

AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTSQ2

SARIMAQ2

GENETIC ALGORITHMQ2

Abstract

In current study, the retail PRICE fluctuations of AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTS including Wheat, Barley, Maize and Rice were predicted by traditional methods and GENETIC ALGORITHM. Required data for all products from Farvardin 1384 to Esfand 1390 were collected. Aban 1390 to Esfand 1390 data were used for FORECASTing accuracy and also FORECASTing was done from Farvardin 1391 to Mehr 1391. In order to compare FORECASTing error of different methods, root mean square error criterion was used. Results showed that GENETIC ALGORITHM method among all FORECASTing methods includes less ererr for FORECASTing PRICE fluctuations of agricultural selected products, and so it, seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) method is good. The root mean square error (RMSE) criterion using the GENETIC ALGORITHM of Wheat, Barley, Maize and Rice PRICE fluctuations are 80.35, 82.78, 376.23 and 923.92 respectively that FORECASTing PRICE fluctuations of Wheat has the lowest error (80.35). Also, FORECASTing coming months showed that PRICE fluctuations of selected crops are very high.

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APA: Copy

MIRZAEI, ABBAS, ZIAABADI, MARYAM, ZARE MEHRJERDI, MOHAMMAD REZA, & MAHMOUDI, SAJAD. (2013). COMPARISON TRADITIONAL METHODS AND GENETIC ALGORITHM IN FORECASTING PRICE FLUCTUATIONS OF AGRICULTURAL SELECTED PRODUCTS. AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS: IRANIAN JOURNAL OF AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS (ECONOMICS AND AGRICULTURE JOURNAL), 7(2), 1-18. SID. https://sid.ir/paper/124263/en

Vancouver: Copy

MIRZAEI ABBAS, ZIAABADI MARYAM, ZARE MEHRJERDI MOHAMMAD REZA, MAHMOUDI SAJAD. COMPARISON TRADITIONAL METHODS AND GENETIC ALGORITHM IN FORECASTING PRICE FLUCTUATIONS OF AGRICULTURAL SELECTED PRODUCTS. AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS: IRANIAN JOURNAL OF AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS (ECONOMICS AND AGRICULTURE JOURNAL)[Internet]. 2013;7(2):1-18. Available from: https://sid.ir/paper/124263/en

IEEE: Copy

ABBAS MIRZAEI, MARYAM ZIAABADI, MOHAMMAD REZA ZARE MEHRJERDI, and SAJAD MAHMOUDI, “COMPARISON TRADITIONAL METHODS AND GENETIC ALGORITHM IN FORECASTING PRICE FLUCTUATIONS OF AGRICULTURAL SELECTED PRODUCTS,” AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS: IRANIAN JOURNAL OF AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS (ECONOMICS AND AGRICULTURE JOURNAL), vol. 7, no. 2, pp. 1–18, 2013, [Online]. Available: https://sid.ir/paper/124263/en

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