ASSESSING THE IMPACT OF AOGCM MODELS UNCERTAINTY ON THE RISK OF AGRICULTURAL WATER DEMAND CAUSED BY CLIMATE CHANGE IN ZAYANDEH RUD IRRIGATAION NETWORKS

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SHAHKARAMI N.; MORID S.; MASSAH BAVANI A.; FAHMI H.

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Journal: Iranian Journal of Irrigation and Drainage Year:2008 | Volume:2 | Issue:2 Page(s): 1-10

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Title

ASSESSING THE IMPACT OF AOGCM MODELS UNCERTAINTY ON THE RISK OF AGRICULTURAL WATER DEMAND CAUSED BY CLIMATE CHANGE IN ZAYANDEH RUD IRRIGATAION NETWORKS

Author(s)

SHAHKARAMI N. | MORID S. | MASSAH BAVANI A. | FAHMI H. | Issue Writer Certificate

Keywords

CLIMATE CHANGEQ2

AOGCM MODELSQ2

UNCERTAINTYQ1

CROP WATER REQUIREMENTQ2

ZAYANDEH RUD IRRIGATION NETWORKQ3

Abstract

One of the most significant consequences of CLIMATE CHANGE is its impact on agricultural water demand that is considered as a serious challenge for the future of water resources. In this research work, a number of the AOGCM MODELS including: CCSR NIBS, CGCM2, CSIRO MK2, ECHAM4, OPOYC3, GFDL R30, HadCM3 and NCAR DOE PCM (A2 emission scenario) are processed to evaluate the impacts of CLIMATE CHANGE on agriculture water demand in ZAYANDEH RUD IRRIGATION NETWORKs for two time periods: 2010- 2039 and 2070- 2099. The selected crops are wheat, barely, sugar-beet and potato, which are the basin's major crops. Due to UNCERTAINTY associated with different AOGCM MODELS, the ranges of temperature were calculated from the referred models and used to determine the CLIMATE CHANGE scenarios. Then for UNCERTAINTY and risk analysis, 1000 samples of time series for horizon of 100 years produced and in the sequel, water demand and the risk of it's changing considered. The results showed significant increase in temperature. Based on the different models results, an increase.in water demand of agricultural sector will be inevitable and UNCERTAINTY and risk will be involved. The study also revealed significant increase in agriculture water demand at the end of this century that necessitates adaptation strategies to mitigate the impacts, especially for the 2070-99 period. Considering the present areas of the selected crops and their augmented requirements, volumes of 173 to 230 MCM/y (for the probability of %50 and 0/025) will be required to meet the demands. Finally, it is found that responses of the crops were different where potato tolerates more variability to this phenomenon.

Cites

AGROCLIMATIC INDICES ASSESSMENT OVER SOME SELECTED WEATHER STATIONS OF KHORASAN RAZAVI PROVINCE UNDER CLIMATE CHANGE SCENARIOS

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APA: Copy

SHAHKARAMI, N., MORID, S., MASSAH BAVANI, A., & FAHMI, H.. (2008). ASSESSING THE IMPACT OF AOGCM MODELS UNCERTAINTY ON THE RISK OF AGRICULTURAL WATER DEMAND CAUSED BY CLIMATE CHANGE IN ZAYANDEH RUD IRRIGATAION NETWORKS. IRANIAN JOURNAL OF IRRIGATION AND DRAINAGE, 2(2), 1-10. SID. https://sid.ir/paper/131439/en

Vancouver: Copy

SHAHKARAMI N., MORID S., MASSAH BAVANI A., FAHMI H.. ASSESSING THE IMPACT OF AOGCM MODELS UNCERTAINTY ON THE RISK OF AGRICULTURAL WATER DEMAND CAUSED BY CLIMATE CHANGE IN ZAYANDEH RUD IRRIGATAION NETWORKS. IRANIAN JOURNAL OF IRRIGATION AND DRAINAGE[Internet]. 2008;2(2):1-10. Available from: https://sid.ir/paper/131439/en

IEEE: Copy

N. SHAHKARAMI, S. MORID, A. MASSAH BAVANI, and H. FAHMI, “ASSESSING THE IMPACT OF AOGCM MODELS UNCERTAINTY ON THE RISK OF AGRICULTURAL WATER DEMAND CAUSED BY CLIMATE CHANGE IN ZAYANDEH RUD IRRIGATAION NETWORKS,” IRANIAN JOURNAL OF IRRIGATION AND DRAINAGE, vol. 2, no. 2, pp. 1–10, 2008, [Online]. Available: https://sid.ir/paper/131439/en

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