COMPARATIVE STUDY OF REGIONAL ESTIMATION METHODS FOR DAILY MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (A CASE STUDY OF THE ISFAHAN PROVINCE)

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FADAVI GH.; BAZRAFSHAN J.

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Journal: Journal of Water and Soil Year:2015 | Volume:29 | Issue:2 Page(s): 504-516

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Title

COMPARATIVE STUDY OF REGIONAL ESTIMATION METHODS FOR DAILY MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (A CASE STUDY OF THE ISFAHAN PROVINCE)

Author(s)

FADAVI GH. | BAZRAFSHAN J. | Issue Writer Certificate

Keywords

DAILY MAXIMUM TEMPERATUREQ3

INTERPOLATIONQ2

ISFAHANQ2

Abstract

Introduction: As the statistical time series are in short period and the meteorological station are notdistributed well in mountainous area determining of climatic criteria are complex. Therefore, in recent yearsinterpolation methods for establishment of continuous climatic data have been considered. Continuous dailymaximum temperature data are a key factor for climate-crop modeling which is fundamental for water resourcesmanagement, drought, and optimal use from climatic potentials of different regions. The main objective of thisstudy is to evaluate different in terpolation methods for estimation of regional maximum temperature in theIsfahan province.Materials and Methods: ISFAHAN province has about 937, 105 square kilometers, between 30 degree and 43minutes to 34 degree and 27 minutes North latitude equator line and 49 degree and 36 minutes to 55 degree and31 minutes east longitude Greenwich. It is located in the center of Iran and it's western part extend to easternfootage of the Zagros mountain range. It should be mentioned that elevation range of meteorological stations arebetween 845 to 2490 in the study area. This study was done using DAILY MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE data of 1992 and2007 years of synoptic and climatology stations of I.R. of Iran meteorological organization (IRIMO). In order tointerpolate temperature data, two years including 1992 and 2007 with different number of meteorologicalstations have been selected the temperature data of thirty meteorological stations (17 synoptic and 13 climatologically stations) for 1992 year and fifty four meteorological stations (31 synoptic and 23climatologically stations) for 2007 year were used from ISFAHAN province and neighboring provinces. In order toregionalize the point data of DAILY MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE, the INTERPOLATION methods, including inverse distanceweighted (IDW), Kriging, Co-Kriging, Kriging-Regression, multiple regression and Spline were used. Therefore, for this allocated data (24 days for each year and 2 days for each month) were used for different INTERPOLATIONmethods. Using difference measures viz. Root Mean Square Error (RMSE), Mean Bias Error (MBE), MeanAbsolute Error (MAE) and Correlation Coefficient (r), the performance and accuracy of each model were testedto select the best method.Results and Discussion: The assessment of normalizing condition of data was done using KolmogrovSmirnov test at ninety five percent (95%) level of significance in Mini Tab software. The results show thatdistribution of DAILY MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE data had no significant difference with normal distribution for bothyears. Weighed inverse distance method used for estimation DAILY MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE, for this purpose, rootmean square error (RMSE) for different status of power (1 to 5) and number of station (5, 10, 15 and20) wascalculated. According to the minimum RMSE, power for 2 and number of station for 15 in 2007 and power for 1and number of station for 5 in 1992 were obtained as optimum power and number of station. The results alsoshow that in regression equation the correlation coefficient were more than 0.8 for the most of the days. Theregression coefficient of elevation (h) and latitude (y) were almost negative for all the month and the regression coefficient of longitude (x) was positive, showing that decreasing temperature with increasing elevation andincreasing temperature with increasing longitude. The results revealed that for Kriging method the Gussianmodel had the best semivariogram and after that spherical and exponential were in the next order, respectivelyfor 2007 year. In the year 1992, spherical and Gussian models had better semivariogram among others. Elevationwas the best variable to improve Co-kriging method as auxiliary data. such that The correlation coefficientbetween temperature and elevation was more than 0.5 for all days. The results also show that for Co-Krigingmethod the spherical model had the best semivariogram and after that the exponential and Gussian were in thenext order, respectively for 2007 year. In the year 1992, the best model of semivariogram was the linear modeland after that the spherical and Gussian models had better semivariogram in the next order.Conclusion: The results revealed that the application of multiple regression method for INTERPOLATIONproduced less errors between observed and estimated maximum temperature in 1992 (RMSE ranges from 1.41 to 4.03, MAE ranges from 0.98 to 2.55, and r ranges from 0.61 to 0.95). For 2007 year, the best estimation wasperformed by multiple regression and Kriging-Regression (RMSE=ranges from 0.99 to 3.98, MAE rangesfrom0.77 to 2.92, and r ranges from 0.32 to 0.97). Kriging, Co-Kriging, IDW, Spline methods were alsoreasonably performed well and could be used as the second order of priority.In addition, with increasing numberof stations in 2007 as compared to 1992, the overall accuracy of model performance in estimation of dailymaximum temperature have been improved.

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APA: Copy

FADAVI, GH., & BAZRAFSHAN, J.. (2015). COMPARATIVE STUDY OF REGIONAL ESTIMATION METHODS FOR DAILY MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (A CASE STUDY OF THE ISFAHAN PROVINCE). JOURNAL OF WATER AND SOIL (AGRICULTURAL SCIENCES AND TECHNOLOGY), 29(2), 504-516. SID. https://sid.ir/paper/141059/en

Vancouver: Copy

FADAVI GH., BAZRAFSHAN J.. COMPARATIVE STUDY OF REGIONAL ESTIMATION METHODS FOR DAILY MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (A CASE STUDY OF THE ISFAHAN PROVINCE). JOURNAL OF WATER AND SOIL (AGRICULTURAL SCIENCES AND TECHNOLOGY)[Internet]. 2015;29(2):504-516. Available from: https://sid.ir/paper/141059/en

IEEE: Copy

GH. FADAVI, and J. BAZRAFSHAN, “COMPARATIVE STUDY OF REGIONAL ESTIMATION METHODS FOR DAILY MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (A CASE STUDY OF THE ISFAHAN PROVINCE),” JOURNAL OF WATER AND SOIL (AGRICULTURAL SCIENCES AND TECHNOLOGY), vol. 29, no. 2, pp. 504–516, 2015, [Online]. Available: https://sid.ir/paper/141059/en

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