DROUGHT MONITORING BASED ON STANDARDIZED PRECIPITATION EVAOPTRANSPIRATION INDEX (SPEI) UNDER THE EFFECT OF CLIMATE CHANGE

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ZARE ABYANEH H.; GHABAEI SOUGH M.; MOSAEDI A.

Title

DROUGHT MONITORING BASED ON STANDARDIZED PRECIPITATION EVAOPTRANSPIRATION INDEX (SPEI) UNDER THE EFFECT OF CLIMATE CHANGE

Author(s)

ZARE ABYANEH H. | GHABAEI SOUGH M. | MOSAEDI A. | Issue Writer Certificate

Keywords

CLIMATE CHANGEQ2

DROUGHTQ2

MULTI MODEL ENSEMBLEQ2

RUN THEORYQ2

STANDARDIZED PRECIPITATION EVAPOTRANSPIRATION INDEX (SPEI)Q2

Abstract

Introduction: DROUGHT is a natural and recurrent feature of climate. The characterizations of it may changeunder the effect of CLIMATE CHANGE in future periods. During the last few decades a number of different indiceshave been developed to quantify DROUGHT probabilities. DROUGHTs are caused by disruptions to an expectedprecipitation pattern and can be intensified by unusually high temperature values. Precipitation-based DROUGHTindices, including the Standardized precipitation index (SPI), cannot identify the role of temperature increase in DROUGHT condition and in addressing the consequences of CLIMATE CHANGE. Recently, two new standardizeddrought indices have been proposed for DROUGHT variability analysis on multiple time scales, the ReconnaissanceDrought Index (RDI, Tsakiris et al., 2007) and the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI, Vicente-Serrano et al., 2010). The objective of this study is to evaluate the characterization of wet and dryperiods under the effect of CLIMATE CHANGE according to SPEI index in synoptic station of Hamedan for the nextthirty years (2011-2040).Materials and Methods: In this study, the indices of SPEI, SPI and RDI were investigated and the SPEIindex as a multiscalar and suitable index was used to detect, monitor, and explore the consequences of globalwarming on DROUGHT conditions in synoptic station of Hamedan (airport). For this purpose, the period of 1981-2010 was chosen as the base period and the simulation of the future climate variables were done based on A1B, A2 and B2 emissions scenarios and performance of MULTI MODEL ENSEMBLE via LARS-WG5 model for the periodof 2011-2040. The performance of the MULTI MODEL ENSEMBLE was done by using five global climate modelsincluding IPCM4, MPEH5, HADCM3, GFCM21, and NCCCS in the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report (Semenov and Stratonovitch, 2010). By simulating the values of precipitation, and the values of temperature andthe values of estimated evapotranspiration, the values of SPEI, RDI and SPI indices were calculated annuallyand 1, 3 and 6 months (short- term period) and 12, 18 and 24 months (long- term period) time scales for the baseperiod and the three next decades. Then, the relation among them was computed and investigated via correlation coefficient. Then, by monitoring the humidity condition via SPEI index, the characterization of wet and dryperiods in cluding period numbers, longest period, total deficit or surplus, and maximum deficit or surplus werederived based on RUN THEORY and were comprised for the base period and three future decades.Results and Discussion: Evaluation of LARS-WG5 model for base period showed that the model was ableto simulate minimum and maximum temperatures and precipitation data with high accuracy based on statisticerror and can be used to generate data for future years according to emission scenario. According to thesimulated results of performance of MULTI MODEL ENSEMBLE, the average values of mean temperature andprecipitation will increase by 0.82oC and 2.5 % for A2 scenario, respectively. In addition, the minimum andmaximum temperatures have increased in all of the months according to the three scenarios in comparison withthe base period. The correlation results between the investigated indices showed that the maximum andminimum of correlation can be observed between SPI & RDI and SPEI & SPI indices in the base period andfuture decade for each scenario, respectively. DROUGHT assessment based on the SPEI index in the base periodshows that the main DROUGHT episodes occurred in the 1999 to 2001 that were consistent with FAO report (2006). Comparison of wet and dry periods in relation to the base period showed that the number of dry periods willincrease in time scales of 1 and 3 months and will decrease in other long-term time scales.Conclusion: CLIMATE CHANGE and its effects are among the main challenges of water resources managementin the present century. In this study, the effects of this phenomenon on DROUGHT monitoring and change ofcharacterizations were investigated. For this purposes, we used daily meteorological variables during thirty years (1981-2010) from Hamedan Synoptic station. The results of DROUGHT monitoring were based on SPEI index, andit revealed the high variability of humidity condition in the first decade of simulation in comparison with the second and third decades. This issue indicated that this decade requires more attention and managementmeasurements. Also, according to the results of the derived characterization via RUN THEORY, the number of dryperiods will decrease and persistence of the longest dry period and consequently the volume of deficit willincrease in the next three decades. In addition, the total volume surplus of wet periods will decrease in relation tothe base period that can be interpreted as the increasing of moisture deficit in future decades The SPEI is basedon precipitation and temperature data, and it has the advantage of combining multiscalar character with thecapacity to include the effects of temperature variability on DROUGHT assessment. Thus, we recommend SPEI, as asuitable index for studying and identifying the effect of CLIMATE CHANGE on DROUGHT conditions.

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APA: Copy

ZARE ABYANEH, H., GHABAEI SOUGH, M., & MOSAEDI, A.. (2015). DROUGHT MONITORING BASED ON STANDARDIZED PRECIPITATION EVAOPTRANSPIRATION INDEX (SPEI) UNDER THE EFFECT OF CLIMATE CHANGE. JOURNAL OF WATER AND SOIL (AGRICULTURAL SCIENCES AND TECHNOLOGY), 29(2), 374-392. SID. https://sid.ir/paper/141071/en

Vancouver: Copy

ZARE ABYANEH H., GHABAEI SOUGH M., MOSAEDI A.. DROUGHT MONITORING BASED ON STANDARDIZED PRECIPITATION EVAOPTRANSPIRATION INDEX (SPEI) UNDER THE EFFECT OF CLIMATE CHANGE. JOURNAL OF WATER AND SOIL (AGRICULTURAL SCIENCES AND TECHNOLOGY)[Internet]. 2015;29(2):374-392. Available from: https://sid.ir/paper/141071/en

IEEE: Copy

H. ZARE ABYANEH, M. GHABAEI SOUGH, and A. MOSAEDI, “DROUGHT MONITORING BASED ON STANDARDIZED PRECIPITATION EVAOPTRANSPIRATION INDEX (SPEI) UNDER THE EFFECT OF CLIMATE CHANGE,” JOURNAL OF WATER AND SOIL (AGRICULTURAL SCIENCES AND TECHNOLOGY), vol. 29, no. 2, pp. 374–392, 2015, [Online]. Available: https://sid.ir/paper/141071/en

Scientific Information Database

ISSN: 2588-4824

Journal Paper

DROUGHT MONITORING BASED ON STANDARDIZED PRECIPITATION EVAOPTRANSPIRATION INDEX (SPEI) UNDER THE EFFECT OF CLIMATE CHANGE