APPLICATION OF VITERBI’S ALGORITHM FOR PREDICTING RAINFALL OCCURRENCE AND SIMULATING WET\DRY SPELLS – COMPARISON WITH COMMON METHODS

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GHAMGHAMI M.; BAZRAFSHAN J.

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Journal: Journal of Water and Soil Year:2014 | Volume:28 | Issue:5 Page(s): 1048-1060

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Title

APPLICATION OF VITERBI’S ALGORITHM FOR PREDICTING RAINFALL OCCURRENCE AND SIMULATING WET\DRY SPELLS – COMPARISON WITH COMMON METHODS

Author(s)

GHAMGHAMI M. | BAZRAFSHAN J. | Issue Writer Certificate

Keywords

HMMQ2

DECODINGQ2

WET/DRY SPELLSQ2

PREDICTIONQ2

Abstract

Today, there are various statistical models for the discrete simulation of the rainfall occurrence/ nonoccurrence with more emphasizing on long-term climatic statistics. Nevertheless, the accuracy of such models or PREDICTIONs should be improved in short timescale. In the present paper, it is assumed that the rain falloccurrence/non-occurrence sequences follow a two-layer Hidden Markov Model (HMM) consist of a hiddenlayer (discrete time series of rainfall occurrence and non-occurrence) and an observable layer (weather variables), which is considered as a case study in Khoramabad station during the period of 1961-2005. The DECODING algorithm of Viterbi has been used for simulation of wet/dry sequences. Performance of five weather variables, as the observable variables, including air pressure, vapor pressure, diurnal air temperature, relative humidity and dew point temperature for choosing the best observed variables were evaluated using some measures of error evaluation. Results showed that the variable of diurnal air temperature is the best observablevari able for DECODING process of wet/dry sequences, which detects the strong physical relationship between those variables. Also the Viterbi output was compared with ClimGen and LARS-WG weather generators, in terms of two accuracy measures including similarity of climatic statistics and forecasting skills. Finally, it is concluded that HMM has more skills rather than the other two weather generators in simulation of wet and dry spells. There fore, we recommend the use of HMM instead of two other approaches for generation of wet and drysequences.

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APA: Copy

GHAMGHAMI, M., & BAZRAFSHAN, J.. (2014). APPLICATION OF VITERBI’S ALGORITHM FOR PREDICTING RAINFALL OCCURRENCE AND SIMULATING WET\DRY SPELLS – COMPARISON WITH COMMON METHODS. JOURNAL OF WATER AND SOIL (AGRICULTURAL SCIENCES AND TECHNOLOGY), 28(5), 1048-1060. SID. https://sid.ir/paper/141138/en

Vancouver: Copy

GHAMGHAMI M., BAZRAFSHAN J.. APPLICATION OF VITERBI’S ALGORITHM FOR PREDICTING RAINFALL OCCURRENCE AND SIMULATING WET\DRY SPELLS – COMPARISON WITH COMMON METHODS. JOURNAL OF WATER AND SOIL (AGRICULTURAL SCIENCES AND TECHNOLOGY)[Internet]. 2014;28(5):1048-1060. Available from: https://sid.ir/paper/141138/en

IEEE: Copy

M. GHAMGHAMI, and J. BAZRAFSHAN, “APPLICATION OF VITERBI’S ALGORITHM FOR PREDICTING RAINFALL OCCURRENCE AND SIMULATING WET\DRY SPELLS – COMPARISON WITH COMMON METHODS,” JOURNAL OF WATER AND SOIL (AGRICULTURAL SCIENCES AND TECHNOLOGY), vol. 28, no. 5, pp. 1048–1060, 2014, [Online]. Available: https://sid.ir/paper/141138/en

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