Evaluation of the WRF model performance for heavy rainfall simulation A Case Study of the Kan Basin in Iran

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GOODARZI L.; BANIHABIB M.E.; GHAFARIAN P.

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Journal: Journal of Water and Soil Conservation Year:2018 | Volume:25 | Issue:1 Page(s): 229-242

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Title

Evaluation of the WRF model performance for heavy rainfall simulation A Case Study of the Kan Basin in Iran

Author(s)

GOODARZI L. | BANIHABIB M.E. | GHAFARIAN P. | Issue Writer Certificate

Keywords

ForecastingQ2

Heavy rainfallQ1

WRFQ1

Kan WatershedQ1

Abstract

Background and Objectives: Heavy rainfalls cause flood events in Iran’ s watersheds and huge damages every years. Forecasting of Heavy rainfall is an essential step in development of a flood warning system. In recent years, the Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models were widely used for weather Forecasting. Several meteorological centers and services offer weather Forecasting using numerical models. It is necessary to mention that the forecasts of these center are meshed at a large scale. One of the widely used dynamical downscaling method is the weather research and Forecasting (WRF) model. In this paper, the performance of the WRF model is evaluated for Heavy rainfall simulation in Kan Watershed, Tehran. Materials and Methods: The initial and boundary conditions of the model uses data at the start time of Global Forecast System (GFS) (Coordinated Universal Time). Three domains were used in the implementation of WRF model. Horizontal resolution of the domains are 27km, 9 km and 3 km for big, middle and small meshes, respectively. The evaluation was conducted on the short-term Forecasting (24 hours). For this purpose, three Heavy rainfall historical events which caused floods in the study area were selected and simulated using the WRF model. Precipitation forecasts were also downloaded from NCEP's Internet web site. Then, the Heavy rainfall simulated by WRF model and presented by NCEP were compared to the observed rainfall data from rain gauge stations. Results: The results showed that rainfall has been underestimated by NCEP forecasts and also the time of precipitation events has not been correctly predicted. Moreover, the results indicates that the WRF model functions relatively perfect in Forecasting the Heavy rainfall events, as by running this model, error indices were significantly reduced compared to global model. Furthermore, the comparison of three convection scheme shows that the Grell 3D ensemble scheme results less error that two other schemes in Forecasting Heavy rainfalls in the study area. Conclusion: Applying the WRF model increased the accuracy of precipitation Forecasting compared to the global model. Therefore, it is recommended to use the WRF model coupled with a hydrological model to development a flood warning systems in the flash flood-prone watersheds.

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APA: Copy

GOODARZI, L., BANIHABIB, M.E., & GHAFARIAN, P.. (2018). Evaluation of the WRF model performance for heavy rainfall simulation A Case Study of the Kan Basin in Iran. JOURNAL OF WATER AND SOIL CONSERVATION (JOURNAL OF AGRICULTURAL SCIENCES AND NATURAL RESOURCES), 25(1 ), 229-242. SID. https://sid.ir/paper/156374/en

Vancouver: Copy

GOODARZI L., BANIHABIB M.E., GHAFARIAN P.. Evaluation of the WRF model performance for heavy rainfall simulation A Case Study of the Kan Basin in Iran. JOURNAL OF WATER AND SOIL CONSERVATION (JOURNAL OF AGRICULTURAL SCIENCES AND NATURAL RESOURCES)[Internet]. 2018;25(1 ):229-242. Available from: https://sid.ir/paper/156374/en

IEEE: Copy

L. GOODARZI, M.E. BANIHABIB, and P. GHAFARIAN, “Evaluation of the WRF model performance for heavy rainfall simulation A Case Study of the Kan Basin in Iran,” JOURNAL OF WATER AND SOIL CONSERVATION (JOURNAL OF AGRICULTURAL SCIENCES AND NATURAL RESOURCES), vol. 25, no. 1 , pp. 229–242, 2018, [Online]. Available: https://sid.ir/paper/156374/en

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