Analysis of frosty days in Gorgan synoptic station with climate change approach

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Kashki A.R.; Imani Pour H.; Firooz Yazdi M.

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Journal: Journal of Water and Soil Conservation Year:2019 | Volume:25 | Issue:6 Page(s): 269-279

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Title

Analysis of frosty days in Gorgan synoptic station with climate change approach

Author(s)

Kashki A.R. | Imani Pour H. | Firooz Yazdi M. | Issue Writer Certificate

Keywords

Climate changeQ1

Frosty daysQ2

GorganQ1

SDSMQ3

Abstract

Background and Objectives: Changing the number of Frosty days in the future, which is important for agriculture and development, can be one of the consequences of Climate change and the phenomenon of global warming. Understanding how and when it happens can help the agricultural sector. The purpose of this study is to determine the change in the number of Frosty days in the future period (2068-2015) compared to the base period (1961-2014) for the Gorgan station. Materials and Methods: In order to compare the number of freezing days in the base and future periods, daily data on the minimum temperature of the Gorgan station was received from the Iranian Meteorological Organization during the period 1966-2014. The latest available scenarios of the Fifth Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate change (AR5 2014), which include RCP scenarios, were downloaded from the Canadian Climate change Web site and, using the SDSM macroeconomic statistics software, data for the upcoming period (2068-2015) in the region was scaled down. Afterward, the number of Frosty days in the base period and the scenarios was calculated. Then, Wilcoxon test showed a significant difference between the mean numbers of Frosty days. Result: In general, the purpose of this study is to investigate the total number of freezing days during the observation period and compare it with different scenarios in the future. In order to achieve this goal, using the Wilcoxon test, the mean of observational data with three scenarios 2. 6, 4. 5 and 8. 5 respectively. This comparison shows a significant difference between the means. (The compare means is significant when it is less than 0. 05). Meaningful meanings indicate that Frosty days will be reduced significantly in the future. The results of this research indicate that in the next 54 years (2015-2068), the minimum temperature will increase for Gorgan station and the number of frost days will significantly decrease. The average number of freezing days in the base period (1961-2016) is about 16 days, in the upcoming period until 2068 in the scenario 2. 6, about 8 days, in the scenario 4. 5, about 7 days and in the scenario 8. 5, about 6 days. Conclusion: Based on the results of the used models, the comparison of results in the base and future periods indicates a minimum temperature increase and a decrease in the number of freezing days. The significance of the average number of freezing days in the observation and future period indicates a significant and severe decrease of Frosty days and low minimum temperatures in the future, which could be a reason for Climate change. The findings of this research and similar studies confirm the results of the increase in minimum temperature and also the reduction of the frost phase, which requires a greater awareness of planners to deal with destructive effects of Climate change.

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APA: Copy

Kashki, A.R., Imani Pour, H., & Firooz Yazdi, M.. (2019). Analysis of frosty days in Gorgan synoptic station with climate change approach. JOURNAL OF WATER AND SOIL CONSERVATION (JOURNAL OF AGRICULTURAL SCIENCES AND NATURAL RESOURCES), 25(6 ), 269-279. SID. https://sid.ir/paper/156424/en

Vancouver: Copy

Kashki A.R., Imani Pour H., Firooz Yazdi M.. Analysis of frosty days in Gorgan synoptic station with climate change approach. JOURNAL OF WATER AND SOIL CONSERVATION (JOURNAL OF AGRICULTURAL SCIENCES AND NATURAL RESOURCES)[Internet]. 2019;25(6 ):269-279. Available from: https://sid.ir/paper/156424/en

IEEE: Copy

A.R. Kashki, H. Imani Pour, and M. Firooz Yazdi, “Analysis of frosty days in Gorgan synoptic station with climate change approach,” JOURNAL OF WATER AND SOIL CONSERVATION (JOURNAL OF AGRICULTURAL SCIENCES AND NATURAL RESOURCES), vol. 25, no. 6 , pp. 269–279, 2019, [Online]. Available: https://sid.ir/paper/156424/en

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