Evaluation of the accuracy of HMS-SMA and bilinear time series models in predicting daily runoff (Case study: Idenak station at Maroun basin)

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AHMADPOUR A.; MIRHASHEMI S.H.; Haghightjou P.

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Journal: Journal of Water and Soil Conservation Year:2019 | Volume:26 | Issue:3 Page(s): 161-176

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Title

Evaluation of the accuracy of HMS-SMA and bilinear time series models in predicting daily runoff (Case study: Idenak station at Maroun basin)

Author(s)

AHMADPOUR A. | MIRHASHEMI S.H. | Haghightjou P. | Issue Writer Certificate

Keywords

Bilinear modelQ1

HMS-SMA modelQ1

Portemanteau statisticQ2

Prediction of runoffQ2

Time seriesQ1

Abstract

Background and Objectives: Prediction of runoff in order to effective operation of flood control reservoirs and earth flood walls is essential. Predictions also make possible emergency operation of reservoirs by estimating time of floods occurrence and expected damages. Predictions are based on recent meteorological and hydrological conditions of the basin and may include future conditions. Although, most of applications are for flood prediction, these may support water supply, hydroelectric requirements, environmental needs and other requirements for operation. Thus, various complex relations and models such as conceptual rainfall-runoff, linear Time series and hybrid models are developed. However, because of the lack of precise knowledge and the complexity of the factors affecting the discharge of rivers, in many cases, the amount of calculated values from different relationships has been significantly different. The objective of this research is assessment of precision of HMS-SMA conceptual model and Bilinear model in prediction of daily runoff of Maroun basin located in Khouzestan province of Iran. The distinction between the current study and previous studies is that the comparison of the HEC-HMS and bilinear Time series models has not been considered so far to predict daily runoff in Iran. Materials and Methods: In the current study, daily discharge data of Maroun river for 17 years (1995-2011) at Idenak hydrometric station located in Maroun basin were analyzed. Maroun basin to upstream of Maroun dam according to topography and location of hydrometric stations was divided to four sub-basins and each of the sub-basins were introduced to HMS-SMA conceptual model independently. Amongst different convert rainfall-runoff models in HEC-HMS conceptual model, Clark’ s unit hydrograph was used because of its applicability and acceptable performance in large basins. Furthermore, according to literature review and suggestions, SMA model of linear reservoir base flow was used for estimating the base flow. Flood routing in various reaches were performed by Muskingum method. Additionally, due to possibility of snowfall in the basin, for modeling of snow melt, index temperature method was used. Bilinear models were introduced by Granger and Anderson. In fact, Bilinear models are extension of second order Taylor series. Considering the non-persistence of mean and variance of Time series of discharge of Idenak station, the differentiation methods, Box-Cox transformation and radical function transformation were used to stabilize the mean and data series. Results: Considering various hydrograph shapes in verification and calibration processes, it is evident that HMS-SMA model has a good precision in estimating low flows compare than high flows. The differentiation method and the Box-Cox transformation were used for stabilizing the mean and variance, respectively. Then various Bilinear models with various orders were fitted to Time series data. Verification of the fitted Bilinear models to daily discharges of Idenak station was achieved by Portemanteau statistic. Finally, Bilinear model in the form of BL (2, 2, 1, 1) with the least Akaike criterion was selected as the best model and was applied for comparing to the predicted daily discharges by the HMS-SMA model. Conclusion: An overview of assessment criteria of the HMS-SMA and Bilinear models showed that Bilinear model in the form of BL (2, 2, 1, 1) with a coefficient of determination, sum of residual errors and mean square root of errors equal to 0. 91, 8. 9 and 17. 8 respectively, is the best model with high precision in modeling and prediction of daily discharges of Maroun basin compare to HMS-SMA model. Furthermore, it is concluded that by increasing order of moving average in Bilinear models, their ability for predicting daily discharges decreases.

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APA: Copy

AHMADPOUR, A., MIRHASHEMI, S.H., & Haghightjou, P.. (2019). Evaluation of the accuracy of HMS-SMA and bilinear time series models in predicting daily runoff (Case study: Idenak station at Maroun basin). JOURNAL OF WATER AND SOIL CONSERVATION (JOURNAL OF AGRICULTURAL SCIENCES AND NATURAL RESOURCES), 26(3 ), 161-176. SID. https://sid.ir/paper/156527/en

Vancouver: Copy

AHMADPOUR A., MIRHASHEMI S.H., Haghightjou P.. Evaluation of the accuracy of HMS-SMA and bilinear time series models in predicting daily runoff (Case study: Idenak station at Maroun basin). JOURNAL OF WATER AND SOIL CONSERVATION (JOURNAL OF AGRICULTURAL SCIENCES AND NATURAL RESOURCES)[Internet]. 2019;26(3 ):161-176. Available from: https://sid.ir/paper/156527/en

IEEE: Copy

A. AHMADPOUR, S.H. MIRHASHEMI, and P. Haghightjou, “Evaluation of the accuracy of HMS-SMA and bilinear time series models in predicting daily runoff (Case study: Idenak station at Maroun basin),” JOURNAL OF WATER AND SOIL CONSERVATION (JOURNAL OF AGRICULTURAL SCIENCES AND NATURAL RESOURCES), vol. 26, no. 3 , pp. 161–176, 2019, [Online]. Available: https://sid.ir/paper/156527/en

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