Uncertainty analysis of the statistically downscaling Precipitation and Temptation on the Qorantalar

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AHMADI MEHDI; GHERMEZ CHESHMEH BAGHER; GHASEMIEH HODA

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Journal: Journal of Water Resources Engineering Year:2017 | Volume:10 | Issue:34 Page(s): 11-23

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Title

Uncertainty analysis of the statistically downscaling Precipitation and Temptation on the Qorantalar

Author(s)

AHMADI MEHDI | GHERMEZ CHESHMEH BAGHER | GHASEMIEH HODA | Issue Writer Certificate

Keywords

Climate change analysisQ2

SDSMQ2

Artificial Neural NetworksQ1

Abstract

One consequence of a significant increase in the man-made greenhouse gases in recent decades has been a global rise in air temperature with the commensurate rise in the atmospheric heat energy, which in turn affects the hydrologic cycle. Thus a drastic change in the amount, distribution and timing of the hydrologic events is logical. Therefore, preparation for the future water-related events dictates an implication of detailed studies on the prediction of the future rise in temperature and the resultant change in precipitation. The Atmosphere-Ocean General Circulation Model (AOGCM) is considered to be the most reliable software for the predicting the weather-related events. The statistical downscaling method (SDSM) and the Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) were tested to remove the uncertainty related to the AOGCM. Of a few software used for downscaling, SDSM was proved to be the most reliable for predicting the 2011-2040 changes in air temperatures and precipitation under the A2, B2 scenarios of the HadCM3 for the Qorantalar Watershed. Results indicated that there would be an increase of 7% and 6% in the precipitation amount, and 0. 34 and 0. 86 degrees Celsius in temperature using the A2 and B2 scenarios, respectively.

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APA: Copy

AHMADI, MEHDI, GHERMEZ CHESHMEH, BAGHER, & GHASEMIEH, HODA. (2017). Uncertainty analysis of the statistically downscaling Precipitation and Temptation on the Qorantalar. WATER ENGINEERING, 10(34 ), 11-23. SID. https://sid.ir/paper/169455/en

Vancouver: Copy

AHMADI MEHDI, GHERMEZ CHESHMEH BAGHER, GHASEMIEH HODA. Uncertainty analysis of the statistically downscaling Precipitation and Temptation on the Qorantalar. WATER ENGINEERING[Internet]. 2017;10(34 ):11-23. Available from: https://sid.ir/paper/169455/en

IEEE: Copy

MEHDI AHMADI, BAGHER GHERMEZ CHESHMEH, and HODA GHASEMIEH, “Uncertainty analysis of the statistically downscaling Precipitation and Temptation on the Qorantalar,” WATER ENGINEERING, vol. 10, no. 34 , pp. 11–23, 2017, [Online]. Available: https://sid.ir/paper/169455/en

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