Land use Changes Modelling Using Logistic Regression and Markov Chain in the Haraz Watershed

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KAVIAN ATAOLLAH; Zargoosh Zarifeh; JAFARIAN ZEINAB; DARABI HAMID

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Journal: Journal of Natural Environment Year:2017 | Volume:70 | Issue:2 Page(s): 397-412

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Title

Land use Changes Modelling Using Logistic Regression and Markov Chain in the Haraz Watershed

Author(s)

KAVIAN ATAOLLAH | Zargoosh Zarifeh | JAFARIAN ZEINAB | DARABI HAMID | Issue Writer Certificate

Keywords

Landsat satelliteQ2

Land use modelingQ1

Logistic regressionQ2

Markov chainQ1

Accuracy assessmentQ2

Abstract

Assessment of land use spatio-temporal changes presents the perfect data for managers to elaborate plans. Land use change modeling is one of the methods used by planers to manage land use changes. The present study aims to predict land use changes using Logistic regression and Markov chain model in Haraz watershed. Land use maps of the study area were prepared from Lands at images (L5-TM-1988, L7-ETM+-2000 and-L8-OLI-2013). For this purpose, image classification method and maximum likelihood algorithm was used in ENVI 4. 8 software. Then transition potential modeling was performed using Land Change Modeler (LCM) and Logistic regression (LR). In order to predict land use for 2025, maps of the calibration periods of1988-2000, 2000-2013 and 1988-2013 using a Markov chain model and hard prediction were used. The results of the calibration periods using the GEOMOD method and its parameters(N(n), N(m), H(m), M(m), K(m), P(m) and P(p)) and kappa coefficients showed that period of 1988-2013 with highest accuracy was selected to predict 2025 land use map. The results of the land use changes showed that over the period 1988-2013, the rate of decreasing of forest, grassland and irrigated land was 4. 20, 5. 09 and 0. 63 percent, respectively. Also, during the period residential areas, orchard and bare land, increased 1. 28, 2. 20 and 6. 62 percent, respectively. Dominant changes of this period were transition of forest and rangeland to orchards, residential area and bare land with 8836. 4, 5165. 1 and 426598. 4ha, respectively. Also the results of Land use modeling for 2025 revealed that the area of forest and rangelands will decrease to 2978. 18 and 6367. 41 ha, respectively and irrigated land, residential area, orchards and bare land will expand to 391. 86, 29. 38, 1453. 42 and 7214. 94ha, respectively.

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APA: Copy

KAVIAN, ATAOLLAH, Zargoosh, Zarifeh, JAFARIAN, ZEINAB, & DARABI, HAMID. (2017). Land use Changes Modelling Using Logistic Regression and Markov Chain in the Haraz Watershed. JOURNAL OF NATURAL ENVIRONMENT (IRANIAN JOURNAL OF NATURAL RESOURCES), 70(2 ), 397-412. SID. https://sid.ir/paper/194845/en

Vancouver: Copy

KAVIAN ATAOLLAH, Zargoosh Zarifeh, JAFARIAN ZEINAB, DARABI HAMID. Land use Changes Modelling Using Logistic Regression and Markov Chain in the Haraz Watershed. JOURNAL OF NATURAL ENVIRONMENT (IRANIAN JOURNAL OF NATURAL RESOURCES)[Internet]. 2017;70(2 ):397-412. Available from: https://sid.ir/paper/194845/en

IEEE: Copy

ATAOLLAH KAVIAN, Zarifeh Zargoosh, ZEINAB JAFARIAN, and HAMID DARABI, “Land use Changes Modelling Using Logistic Regression and Markov Chain in the Haraz Watershed,” JOURNAL OF NATURAL ENVIRONMENT (IRANIAN JOURNAL OF NATURAL RESOURCES), vol. 70, no. 2 , pp. 397–412, 2017, [Online]. Available: https://sid.ir/paper/194845/en

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