Assessing Impacts of Climate Change on Endangered KelussiaodoratissimaMozaff Species Distribution using Generalized Additive Model

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Abolmaali Seyed Mohammadreza; TARKESH ESFAHANI MOSTAFA; BASHARI HOSSEIN

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Journal: Journal of Natural Environment Year:2017 | Volume:70 | Issue:2 Page(s): 243-254

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Title

Assessing Impacts of Climate Change on Endangered KelussiaodoratissimaMozaff Species Distribution using Generalized Additive Model

Author(s)

Abolmaali Seyed Mohammadreza | TARKESH ESFAHANI MOSTAFA | BASHARI HOSSEIN | Issue Writer Certificate

Keywords

Potential habitatQ2

climate changeQ1

conservationQ1

Geographic Information SystemQ2

FereidoonshahrQ2

Abstract

climate change can potentially alter some aspects of habitat characteristics of vegetation around the world. This study aimed to evaluate the impacts of climate change on Kelussia odoratissima Mozaff distribution for two time steps (2030 and 2080) using Hadcm3model A2 scenario in west part of Isfahan. Stratified random sampling method was used to collect the present and absent data of the species form 50 sites. The species occurrence relationships with environmental factors including three physiographic parameters (slope, aspect and elevation) and 19 bioclimatic parameters (average daily temperature, annual precipitation, etc. ) were explored using Generalized Additive Model (GAM), and the potential species distribution map was produced using Geographic Information System (GIS). According to the results, the average annual temperature, annual precipitation, elevation and slope were identified as the most important environmental factors influencing the species distribution. The produced model had an acceptable accuracy as its Kappa coefficient and Area Under Curve (AUC) index were 0/97 and 0/98, respectively. Comparing the current distribution of the species with the projected distribution maps of the species under A2 scenarios for the both two time steps indicated that the species distribution will shift to the higher elevation range and its occurrence will be more limited. The shifts in the species distribution are mainly due to the decreasing annual precipitation and increasing annual average temperature based on the A2 scenario prediction. The findings of this study can be used for conserving and restoring the degraded habitats of this endangered, valuable and medicinal plant species.

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APA: Copy

Abolmaali, Seyed Mohammadreza, TARKESH ESFAHANI, MOSTAFA, & BASHARI, HOSSEIN. (2017). Assessing Impacts of Climate Change on Endangered KelussiaodoratissimaMozaff Species Distribution using Generalized Additive Model. JOURNAL OF NATURAL ENVIRONMENT (IRANIAN JOURNAL OF NATURAL RESOURCES), 70(2 ), 243-254. SID. https://sid.ir/paper/194851/en

Vancouver: Copy

Abolmaali Seyed Mohammadreza, TARKESH ESFAHANI MOSTAFA, BASHARI HOSSEIN. Assessing Impacts of Climate Change on Endangered KelussiaodoratissimaMozaff Species Distribution using Generalized Additive Model. JOURNAL OF NATURAL ENVIRONMENT (IRANIAN JOURNAL OF NATURAL RESOURCES)[Internet]. 2017;70(2 ):243-254. Available from: https://sid.ir/paper/194851/en

IEEE: Copy

Seyed Mohammadreza Abolmaali, MOSTAFA TARKESH ESFAHANI, and HOSSEIN BASHARI, “Assessing Impacts of Climate Change on Endangered KelussiaodoratissimaMozaff Species Distribution using Generalized Additive Model,” JOURNAL OF NATURAL ENVIRONMENT (IRANIAN JOURNAL OF NATURAL RESOURCES), vol. 70, no. 2 , pp. 243–254, 2017, [Online]. Available: https://sid.ir/paper/194851/en

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