THE COMBINED EFFECT OF SEASONAL FLUCTUATIONS OF PERSIAN GULF AND MEDITERRANEAN SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE ON MONTHLY STREAMFLOW FORECASTING OF KARKHEH RIVER, IRAN

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MODARRESI FERESHTEH; ARAGHINEJAD SHAHAB; EBRAHIMI KUMARS

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Journal: Iranian Journal of Soil and Water Research Year:2016 | Volume:46 | Issue:4 Page(s): 597-607

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Title

THE COMBINED EFFECT OF SEASONAL FLUCTUATIONS OF PERSIAN GULF AND MEDITERRANEAN SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE ON MONTHLY STREAMFLOW FORECASTING OF KARKHEH RIVER, IRAN

Author(s)

MODARRESI FERESHTEH | ARAGHINEJAD SHAHAB | EBRAHIMI KUMARS | Issue Writer Certificate

Keywords

MONTHLY STREAM FLOW FORECASTINGQ2

SVDQ2

PERSIAN GULFQ2

MEDITERRANEAN SEAQ2

GRNNQ2

Abstract

In the current paper, the combined effect of seasonal fluctuations of PERSIAN GULF and MEDITERRANEAN SEA Surface Temperatures (SSTS) on the forecast of monthly stream flow of Karkheh River has been investigated. To follow the purpose, Singular Value Decomposition method (SVD) has been made use of to determine the effective nodes of the seas on the climate of the region and to produce the correlated series of sea surface temperatures vs stream flow’s. Moreover, Generalized Regression Neural Network method (GRNN) based on cross-validation technique has been applied to determine the most appropriate predictors from same several combinations of predictors for each month. Results for the forecast of the inflow in to Garsha dam show that the MEDITERRANEAN SEA SST, during autumn, affects the stream flow from February to April, and while summer and autumn SSTs of PERSIAN GULF affect the stream flow in April and May such that applying these two indices for stream flow forecast in April and May results in an average increase of 118% vs 282% in Nash-Sutcliff index during calibration vs validation phases, respectively.

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APA: Copy

MODARRESI, FERESHTEH, ARAGHINEJAD, SHAHAB, & EBRAHIMI, KUMARS. (2016). THE COMBINED EFFECT OF SEASONAL FLUCTUATIONS OF PERSIAN GULF AND MEDITERRANEAN SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE ON MONTHLY STREAMFLOW FORECASTING OF KARKHEH RIVER, IRAN. IRANIAN JOURNAL OF SOIL AND WATER RESEARCH, 46(4), 597-607. SID. https://sid.ir/paper/225600/en

Vancouver: Copy

MODARRESI FERESHTEH, ARAGHINEJAD SHAHAB, EBRAHIMI KUMARS. THE COMBINED EFFECT OF SEASONAL FLUCTUATIONS OF PERSIAN GULF AND MEDITERRANEAN SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE ON MONTHLY STREAMFLOW FORECASTING OF KARKHEH RIVER, IRAN. IRANIAN JOURNAL OF SOIL AND WATER RESEARCH[Internet]. 2016;46(4):597-607. Available from: https://sid.ir/paper/225600/en

IEEE: Copy

FERESHTEH MODARRESI, SHAHAB ARAGHINEJAD, and KUMARS EBRAHIMI, “THE COMBINED EFFECT OF SEASONAL FLUCTUATIONS OF PERSIAN GULF AND MEDITERRANEAN SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE ON MONTHLY STREAMFLOW FORECASTING OF KARKHEH RIVER, IRAN,” IRANIAN JOURNAL OF SOIL AND WATER RESEARCH, vol. 46, no. 4, pp. 597–607, 2016, [Online]. Available: https://sid.ir/paper/225600/en

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