PERFORMANCE EVALUATION OF STATISTICAL DOWNSCALING MODEL (SDSM) IN FORECASTING TEMPERATURE INDEXES IN TWO ARID AND HYPER ARID REGIONS (CASE STUDY: KERMAN AND BAM)

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REZAEI MARYAM; NOHTANI MOHAMMAD; ABKAR ALIJAN; REZAEI MASOUMEH; MIRKAZEHI RIGI MEHRI

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Journal: JOURNAL OF WATERSHED MANAGEMENT RESEARCH Year:2015 | Volume:5 | Issue:10 Page(s): 117-131

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Title

PERFORMANCE EVALUATION OF STATISTICAL DOWNSCALING MODEL (SDSM) IN FORECASTING TEMPERATURE INDEXES IN TWO ARID AND HYPER ARID REGIONS (CASE STUDY: KERMAN AND BAM)

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Keywords

BAMQ2

CLIMATE CHANGEQ1

TEMPERATUREQ2

KERMANQ2

SDSM MODELQ2

Abstract

Statistical downscaling methods are widely used for prediction of climatic variables e.g. TEMPERATURE because of importance of these factors in environmental planning and management. In this study, the performance of Statistical Downscaling Model (SDSM) was investigated to predict TEMPERATURE. The input data of the study include minimum, maximum and mean TEMPERATURE of KERMAN and BAM Synoptic stations, NCEP (National Centers for Environmental Prediction) data and the A2 and B2 emission scenarios HadCM3 for the reference period, 1971-2001. The first 15 years data (1971-1985) was applied for the calibration and the second 15 years data (1986-2001) for model validation. TEMPERATURE for three periods including 2010-2039, 2040-2069 and 2070-2099 was predicted and then compared with the TEMPERATURE data of reference period i.e.1971-2001 using HadCM3A2, B2 data. Statistical measures of model performance such as Mean Absolute Error (MAE), Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE), Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NS) and the analysis of output results from SDSM MODEL shown that this model is able to predict TEMPERATURE indexes more accurately in arid climate than in hyper-arid climate. The results indicate TEMPERATUREs rising in all months for both stations.

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APA: Copy

REZAEI, MARYAM, NOHTANI, MOHAMMAD, ABKAR, ALIJAN, REZAEI, MASOUMEH, & MIRKAZEHI RIGI, MEHRI. (2015). PERFORMANCE EVALUATION OF STATISTICAL DOWNSCALING MODEL (SDSM) IN FORECASTING TEMPERATURE INDEXES IN TWO ARID AND HYPER ARID REGIONS (CASE STUDY: KERMAN AND BAM). JOURNAL OF WATERSHED MANAGEMENT RESEARCH, 5(10), 117-131. SID. https://sid.ir/paper/230359/en

Vancouver: Copy

REZAEI MARYAM, NOHTANI MOHAMMAD, ABKAR ALIJAN, REZAEI MASOUMEH, MIRKAZEHI RIGI MEHRI. PERFORMANCE EVALUATION OF STATISTICAL DOWNSCALING MODEL (SDSM) IN FORECASTING TEMPERATURE INDEXES IN TWO ARID AND HYPER ARID REGIONS (CASE STUDY: KERMAN AND BAM). JOURNAL OF WATERSHED MANAGEMENT RESEARCH[Internet]. 2015;5(10):117-131. Available from: https://sid.ir/paper/230359/en

IEEE: Copy

MARYAM REZAEI, MOHAMMAD NOHTANI, ALIJAN ABKAR, MASOUMEH REZAEI, and MEHRI MIRKAZEHI RIGI, “PERFORMANCE EVALUATION OF STATISTICAL DOWNSCALING MODEL (SDSM) IN FORECASTING TEMPERATURE INDEXES IN TWO ARID AND HYPER ARID REGIONS (CASE STUDY: KERMAN AND BAM),” JOURNAL OF WATERSHED MANAGEMENT RESEARCH, vol. 5, no. 10, pp. 117–131, 2015, [Online]. Available: https://sid.ir/paper/230359/en

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