FORECASTING CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACT ON RAINFALL EROSIVITY FACTOR IN THE SOUTHERN COAST OF CASPIAN SEA

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TAVANGAR SHAHLA; MORADI HAMIDREZA; MASSAH BAVANI ALIREZA; AZARI MAHMOOD

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Journal: WATERSHED ENGINEERING AND MANAGEMENT Year:2017 | Volume:8 | Issue:4 Page(s): 414-424

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Title

FORECASTING CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACT ON RAINFALL EROSIVITY FACTOR IN THE SOUTHERN COAST OF CASPIAN SEA

Author(s)

TAVANGAR SHAHLA | MORADI HAMIDREZA | MASSAH BAVANI ALIREZA | AZARI MAHMOOD | Issue Writer Certificate

Keywords

DOWNSCALINGQ1

HADCM3Q1

LARS-WGQ1

NORTHERN IRANQ1

Abstract

Climate is a complex system that changing mostly due to increased greenhouse gases and global warming, leading to intensification of change in climatic factors such as precipitation amount and intensity of extreme precipitation events. In effect of climate change in the future, change amount and volume of the soil erosion is expected which the most important sensitive factor will be the rain fall erosivity. The aim of this study was to determine the effect of climate change on rainfall erosivity factor. For this purpose the HADCM3 model from A1B scenario was used and DOWNSCALING with LARS-WG model was used. So monitoring of rainfall erosivity factor for three periods of 2011-2030, 2045-2065, and 2080-2099 in north of Iran was simulated. Results show that rainfall erosivity factor in Sangdeh, Babol, Korkorsar, Anzali, Behshar and Gorgan stations will be increasing during the 2011-2030 period but for stations in Babolsar, Hashtpar, Rasht and Gorgan in the period 2045-2065 and 2080-2099 decreased. According of calculations, maximum changes of the rainfall erosivity factor in future will be occurring during the 2011-2030 and it’ s minimum will be occurring period the 2080-2099. So largest rainfall erosivity factor was simulated about 42. 6 MJ mm ha-1 h-1 for Hashtpar station during the 2011 to 2030 period. The obtained results show that the erosivity factor increase will be during the current century in the north of Iran.

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APA: Copy

TAVANGAR, SHAHLA, MORADI, HAMIDREZA, MASSAH BAVANI, ALIREZA, & AZARI, MAHMOOD. (2017). FORECASTING CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACT ON RAINFALL EROSIVITY FACTOR IN THE SOUTHERN COAST OF CASPIAN SEA. WATERSHED ENGINEERING AND MANAGEMENT, 8(4 ), 414-424. SID. https://sid.ir/paper/234709/en

Vancouver: Copy

TAVANGAR SHAHLA, MORADI HAMIDREZA, MASSAH BAVANI ALIREZA, AZARI MAHMOOD. FORECASTING CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACT ON RAINFALL EROSIVITY FACTOR IN THE SOUTHERN COAST OF CASPIAN SEA. WATERSHED ENGINEERING AND MANAGEMENT[Internet]. 2017;8(4 ):414-424. Available from: https://sid.ir/paper/234709/en

IEEE: Copy

SHAHLA TAVANGAR, HAMIDREZA MORADI, ALIREZA MASSAH BAVANI, and MAHMOOD AZARI, “FORECASTING CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACT ON RAINFALL EROSIVITY FACTOR IN THE SOUTHERN COAST OF CASPIAN SEA,” WATERSHED ENGINEERING AND MANAGEMENT, vol. 8, no. 4 , pp. 414–424, 2017, [Online]. Available: https://sid.ir/paper/234709/en

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