PREDICTING THE TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION CHANGES DURING THE 2050S IN URMIA LAKE BASIN

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SALAHI BOROUMAND; GOUDARZI MASSOUD; HOSSEINI SEYED ASAAD

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Journal: WATERSHED ENGINEERING AND MANAGEMENT Year:2017 | Volume:8 | Issue:4 Page(s): 425-438

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Title

PREDICTING THE TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION CHANGES DURING THE 2050S IN URMIA LAKE BASIN

Author(s)

SALAHI BOROUMAND | GOUDARZI MASSOUD | HOSSEINI SEYED ASAAD | Issue Writer Certificate

Keywords

LARS-WGQ1

NORTH WEST OF IRANQ1

SYNOPTIC STATIONSQ1

Abstract

Predicting the temperature and precipitation changes is necessary for assessing the change in the future and to mitigate the harmful impacts of climate change on water resources and agriculture, environmental, economic and social issues. Accordingly atmospheric general circulation models (GCMs) have been developed for simulation of climatic parameters. In this research, output data of HadCM3 general circulation model (with three climate change scenarios A1B, A2 and B1) were downscaled using LARS-WG Statistical Model in selected stations of the Urmia Lake Basin and Results has been evaluated and analyzed from three selected SYNOPTIC STATIONS, including Saghez, Tabriz and Urmia stations in the base period (1961-1990) and the 2050 (2046-2065) for three variables minimum temperature, maximum temperature and precipitation. In LARS-WG model analysis, evaluation of the amount of MSE, RMSE, MAE indexes were done and correlation coefficients were determined. The conclusion can be presented herein that: the model was fit for the region. The overall results for 20 years of 2050s, indicate a decrease of 12. 1 percent in precipitation and also 1. 3 Celsius degrees would be increased in temperature compared to the base period. In the study area, the highest maximum temperature increase would be in Tabriz SYNOPTIC STATIONS and the highest minimum temperature and highest decries precipitation would occur in Urmia station. The results of this study would help enormous the policymakers and planners for water resources in the future.

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APA: Copy

SALAHI, BOROUMAND, GOUDARZI, MASSOUD, & HOSSEINI, SEYED ASAAD. (2017). PREDICTING THE TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION CHANGES DURING THE 2050S IN URMIA LAKE BASIN. WATERSHED ENGINEERING AND MANAGEMENT, 8(4 ), 425-438. SID. https://sid.ir/paper/234715/en

Vancouver: Copy

SALAHI BOROUMAND, GOUDARZI MASSOUD, HOSSEINI SEYED ASAAD. PREDICTING THE TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION CHANGES DURING THE 2050S IN URMIA LAKE BASIN. WATERSHED ENGINEERING AND MANAGEMENT[Internet]. 2017;8(4 ):425-438. Available from: https://sid.ir/paper/234715/en

IEEE: Copy

BOROUMAND SALAHI, MASSOUD GOUDARZI, and SEYED ASAAD HOSSEINI, “PREDICTING THE TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION CHANGES DURING THE 2050S IN URMIA LAKE BASIN,” WATERSHED ENGINEERING AND MANAGEMENT, vol. 8, no. 4 , pp. 425–438, 2017, [Online]. Available: https://sid.ir/paper/234715/en

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