Evaluation of effect of Markov order on the accuracy of drought forecasting based on SPEI index, using Markov Chain method

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ZAREI ABDOL RASSOUL

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Journal: WATERSHED ENGINEERING AND MANAGEMENT Year:2019 | Volume:11 | Issue:1 Page(s): 88-100

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Title

Evaluation of effect of Markov order on the accuracy of drought forecasting based on SPEI index, using Markov Chain method

Author(s)

ZAREI ABDOL RASSOUL | Issue Writer Certificate

Keywords

Climatic fluctuationQ1

Drought analysisQ2

Drought effectsQ1

Drought indexQ1

Markov ChainQ1

MonitoringQ1

Abstract

Drought is an inseparable part of Climatic fluctuations which caused to lot of damages to different sections annually. Therefore, drought prediction can effectively reduce its damages. Markov Chain method is one of the drought prediction methods. In this study, the effect of Markov Chain order (orders 1, 2 and 3) were evaluated in drought forecasting accuracy (based on SPEI index), using Markov Chain method on climatological data of five synoptic stations of Iran with different climatic conditions during 1967 to 2014. Based on the results, transition probability from all drought classes to class 4 (normal) had the most frequency and to class 1 (extreme wet) had the lowest frequency. Results demonstrated that when observed and predicted drought classes have no difference, Markov order 3 has the best results. When observed and predicted drought classes have one class of difference, in 60% of cases Markov order 3 and in 40% of cases Markov order 2 has the best results. When observed and predicted drought classes have difference of two or three classes, Markov order 3 has the best results. Therefore, it is recommended to use Markov order 3 and Markov order 2, respectively with SPEI index and Markov Chain method, for drought forecasting.

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APA: Copy

ZAREI, ABDOL RASSOUL. (2019). Evaluation of effect of Markov order on the accuracy of drought forecasting based on SPEI index, using Markov Chain method. WATERSHED ENGINEERING AND MANAGEMENT, 11(1 ), 88-100. SID. https://sid.ir/paper/234803/en

Vancouver: Copy

ZAREI ABDOL RASSOUL. Evaluation of effect of Markov order on the accuracy of drought forecasting based on SPEI index, using Markov Chain method. WATERSHED ENGINEERING AND MANAGEMENT[Internet]. 2019;11(1 ):88-100. Available from: https://sid.ir/paper/234803/en

IEEE: Copy

ABDOL RASSOUL ZAREI, “Evaluation of effect of Markov order on the accuracy of drought forecasting based on SPEI index, using Markov Chain method,” WATERSHED ENGINEERING AND MANAGEMENT, vol. 11, no. 1 , pp. 88–100, 2019, [Online]. Available: https://sid.ir/paper/234803/en

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