Climate change impact on annual precipitation and temperature of Zanjan province with uncertainties investigation

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KHAZAEI MOHAMMAD REZA; Bayazidi Motalleb; SHARAFATI AHMAD

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Journal Paper

Paper Information

Journal: IRANIAN JOURNAL OF ECOHYDROLOGY Year:2017 | Volume:4 | Issue:3 Page(s): 847-860

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Information Journal Paper

Title

Climate change impact on annual precipitation and temperature of Zanjan province with uncertainties investigation

Author(s)

KHAZAEI MOHAMMAD REZA | Bayazidi Motalleb | SHARAFATI AHMAD | Issue Writer Certificate

Keywords

Annual modelQ2

ARMAQ2

Climate ChangeQ2

stochasticQ2

uncertaintyQ2

Abstract

In this paper, Climate Change impact on annual precipitation and temperature series for Zanjan province was assessed and uncertainties were investigated. Spatial average of annual time series of precipitation and temperature for Zanjan province were calculated and then modelled using ARMA model and 100 annual precipitation and temperature series of length 30 years were generated for spatial average of Zanjan province. Using the models, future scenarios of 6 GCMs under 3 emission scenarios were downscaled and 100 annual precipitation and temperature series of length 30 years were generated for each of the scenarios. 90% bounds of the variable statistics for the current condition were compared with the 90% bounds of the corresponding values for all of the future scenarios and the uncertainties were investigated. Model validation showed that the models are adequate for generation of the annual temperature and precipitation series. In confidence level of 90%, it is expected that average temperature of Zanjan province increase from 0. 6 to 3. 2 º C and average precipitation change from-25% to +15% in 2035-64 period. So, the uncertainty due to the GCMs structure and the emission scenarios are considerable and should be taken into account.

Cites

Assessing of oil pollution in suburbs of Shahid Tondgoian Oil Storage in Zanjan Province (July 2020)

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APA: Copy

KHAZAEI, MOHAMMAD REZA, Bayazidi, Motalleb, & SHARAFATI, AHMAD. (2017). Climate change impact on annual precipitation and temperature of Zanjan province with uncertainties investigation. IRANIAN JOURNAL OF ECOHYDROLOGY, 4(3 ), 847-860. SID. https://sid.ir/paper/254177/en

Vancouver: Copy

KHAZAEI MOHAMMAD REZA, Bayazidi Motalleb, SHARAFATI AHMAD. Climate change impact on annual precipitation and temperature of Zanjan province with uncertainties investigation. IRANIAN JOURNAL OF ECOHYDROLOGY[Internet]. 2017;4(3 ):847-860. Available from: https://sid.ir/paper/254177/en

IEEE: Copy

MOHAMMAD REZA KHAZAEI, Motalleb Bayazidi, and AHMAD SHARAFATI, “Climate change impact on annual precipitation and temperature of Zanjan province with uncertainties investigation,” IRANIAN JOURNAL OF ECOHYDROLOGY, vol. 4, no. 3 , pp. 847–860, 2017, [Online]. Available: https://sid.ir/paper/254177/en

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