Simulation and prediction of drought using Cellular Automata and Markov methods in Najaf Abad plain

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Ebrahimian Roza; Aleshikh Ali Asghar; Masodian Abolfazl

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Paper Information

Journal: IRANIAN JOURNAL OF ECOHYDROLOGY Year:2017 | Volume:4 | Issue:3 Page(s): 653-662

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Title

Simulation and prediction of drought using Cellular Automata and Markov methods in Najaf Abad plain

Author(s)

Ebrahimian Roza | Aleshikh Ali Asghar | Masodian Abolfazl | Issue Writer Certificate

Keywords

DroughtQ2

evapotranspirationQ2

Najaf Abad BasinQ2

Markov and cellular automation systemQ2

Abstract

The governing factors of Drought are non-linearly correlated. Therefore, researcher needs to apply nonlinear methods such as CA to model and predict the Drought. CA and its derivatives are among novel methods of Drought simulation that rarely used for predicting the Drought. While such methods have simple structures, they provide high visual capabilities for Drought monitoring. This paper investigates Drought in Najaf Abad plain using Markov, CA Markov and Landsat satellite images. First, satellite image time series of transpiration were classified for 1995, 2008 and 2015, and the land zonation of Drought condition was estimated. Then, the Drought in 2020 was predicted using CA Markov. The Kappa index is 0. 63 and the agreement between actual and predicted map (M (m)) is 0. 85. Our findings showed that our proposed model can suitably predict the Drought. In addition, the Drought distribution map showing the possibility of changes in 2020, suggests that if the situation continues and no changes in the type of cultivation and cropping pattern happen, all areas in danger of Drought in 2015, will face Drought more intensely and more widely, in 2020.

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APA: Copy

Ebrahimian, Roza, Aleshikh, Ali Asghar, & Masodian, Abolfazl. (2017). Simulation and prediction of drought using Cellular Automata and Markov methods in Najaf Abad plain. IRANIAN JOURNAL OF ECOHYDROLOGY, 4(3 ), 653-662. SID. https://sid.ir/paper/254182/en

Vancouver: Copy

Ebrahimian Roza, Aleshikh Ali Asghar, Masodian Abolfazl. Simulation and prediction of drought using Cellular Automata and Markov methods in Najaf Abad plain. IRANIAN JOURNAL OF ECOHYDROLOGY[Internet]. 2017;4(3 ):653-662. Available from: https://sid.ir/paper/254182/en

IEEE: Copy

Roza Ebrahimian, Ali Asghar Aleshikh, and Abolfazl Masodian, “Simulation and prediction of drought using Cellular Automata and Markov methods in Najaf Abad plain,” IRANIAN JOURNAL OF ECOHYDROLOGY, vol. 4, no. 3 , pp. 653–662, 2017, [Online]. Available: https://sid.ir/paper/254182/en

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