The Prediction of Tehran City's Sustainable Development Indicators in Iran's 20-Year National Vision (2025 Vision Plan) Using a Dynamic System Modelling Framework

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Shojaei Baghini Dariush; SAFAVI BIJAN

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Journal: ARMANSHAHR Year:2020 | Volume:13 | Issue:31 Page(s): 253-270

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Information Journal Paper

Title

The Prediction of Tehran City's Sustainable Development Indicators in Iran's 20-Year National Vision (2025 Vision Plan) Using a Dynamic System Modelling Framework

Author(s)

Shojaei Baghini Dariush | SAFAVI BIJAN | Issue Writer Certificate

Keywords

sustainable developmentQ2

Socio-Economic Sub-SectorQ1

Environmental pollutionQ1

dynamic system approachQ1

Abstract

In recent years, sustainable urban development has been considered more than ever by researchers. Therefore, in the present study, it is attempted to provide a dynamic model of sustainable development for Tehran City. To this end, a computer simulation is applied based on the system dynamics approach using VENSIM software. According to the research purpose and available data, the model is developed using the two socio-economic and Environmental pollution sub-sectors. From the results of the simulation in the basic model, the following conclusions can be drawn: (1) The simulation values could well predict the actual values of the variables indicating the sustainable development of Tehran; (2) It can be said that if the same trend continues in Tehran until 2025, the population of Tehran will reach nearly 11 million people; (3) Despite the GDP growth rate considered for Tehran City, the total revenue of Tehran city will increase from 624 thousand billion Rials in 2008 to 315669 thousand billion Rials in 2025; and (4) The amount of carbon dioxide emitted from various uses in Tehran City will reach nearly 100 billion tons per year by 2025, which is very high and it seems essential to adopt appropriate environmental policies.

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APA: Copy

Shojaei Baghini, Dariush, & SAFAVI, BIJAN. (2020). The Prediction of Tehran City's Sustainable Development Indicators in Iran's 20-Year National Vision (2025 Vision Plan) Using a Dynamic System Modelling Framework. ARMANSHAHR, 13(31 ), 253-270. SID. https://sid.ir/paper/375457/en

Vancouver: Copy

Shojaei Baghini Dariush, SAFAVI BIJAN. The Prediction of Tehran City's Sustainable Development Indicators in Iran's 20-Year National Vision (2025 Vision Plan) Using a Dynamic System Modelling Framework. ARMANSHAHR[Internet]. 2020;13(31 ):253-270. Available from: https://sid.ir/paper/375457/en

IEEE: Copy

Dariush Shojaei Baghini, and BIJAN SAFAVI, “The Prediction of Tehran City's Sustainable Development Indicators in Iran's 20-Year National Vision (2025 Vision Plan) Using a Dynamic System Modelling Framework,” ARMANSHAHR, vol. 13, no. 31 , pp. 253–270, 2020, [Online]. Available: https://sid.ir/paper/375457/en

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