The Effect of Climate Change on Drought Severity and Frequency in South Khorasan

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Salehi Tabas M.; YAGHOOBZADEH M.; ZAMANI GH.R.; AMIRABADIZADEH M.

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Journal: Iranian Journal of Irrigation and Drainage Year:2020 | Volume:13 | Issue:2 Page(s): 482-497

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Title

The Effect of Climate Change on Drought Severity and Frequency in South Khorasan

Author(s)

Salehi Tabas M. | YAGHOOBZADEH M. | ZAMANI GH.R. | AMIRABADIZADEH M. | Issue Writer Certificate

Keywords

GCM ModelsQ2

SPI indexQ1

PrecipitationQ2

LARS-WGQ2

UncertaintyQ1

Abstract

Drought is one of the natural destructive phenomena which cause a lot of damage to the affected area. In this study, outputs of Fifth climate change report were used to investigate changes in Precipitation and drought intensity at Birjand Synoptic Station during the next two periods. Precipitation data for two near future periods (2015-2045) and distant future period (2045-2075) against base period (1975-2005) were downscaled using two scenarios RCP4. 5 and RCP 8. 5 through LARS-WG model. Then the SPI values were determined for six time scales 1, 3, 6, 12, 24 and 48 months. The results showed that in most models, Precipitation changes for both the near and distant future periods would not be much greater than the base period. However, Precipitation will decrease more considerably in the period of 2045-2075 than 2015-2045. Among the GCM Models, the CanESM2 model shows the highest change over the base period and the RCP8. 5 scenario estimates a lower rainfall than the RCP4. 5 scenario. Also, in comparing the GCM Models, NorESM1-M estimates the number of years with more severe drought. The results also showed that in future periods, as the SPI period increases from short to long intervals, SPI values will show more severe drought conditions. Models Uncertainty analysis also showed that the highest Uncertainty value among models for long-term and short-term SPIs was related to NorESM1-M and Mpi-esm-mr models, respectively. The overall results also indicate an increase in severity and duration of drought in the future (especially the distant future).

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APA: Copy

Salehi Tabas, M., YAGHOOBZADEH, M., ZAMANI, GH.R., & AMIRABADIZADEH, M.. (2020). The Effect of Climate Change on Drought Severity and Frequency in South Khorasan. IRANIAN JOURNAL OF IRRIGATION AND DRAINAGE, 13(2 ), 482-497. SID. https://sid.ir/paper/380785/en

Vancouver: Copy

Salehi Tabas M., YAGHOOBZADEH M., ZAMANI GH.R., AMIRABADIZADEH M.. The Effect of Climate Change on Drought Severity and Frequency in South Khorasan. IRANIAN JOURNAL OF IRRIGATION AND DRAINAGE[Internet]. 2020;13(2 ):482-497. Available from: https://sid.ir/paper/380785/en

IEEE: Copy

M. Salehi Tabas, M. YAGHOOBZADEH, GH.R. ZAMANI, and M. AMIRABADIZADEH, “The Effect of Climate Change on Drought Severity and Frequency in South Khorasan,” IRANIAN JOURNAL OF IRRIGATION AND DRAINAGE, vol. 13, no. 2 , pp. 482–497, 2020, [Online]. Available: https://sid.ir/paper/380785/en

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